ONTARIO, CANADA: Campaign Research opinion survey on pilot project

ONTARIO, CANADA: Campaign Research opinion survey on pilot project

Hamilton, Canada. Credit to: CBC.

As reported before, the majority of the Ontario’s citizens support a basic income, but they want a pilot project. However, most think $17,000 (CAD) is insufficient to meet the basic needs of most citizens.

There was a poll by Campaign Research done on 1,969 people with 53% of people supporting the plan for a basic income. Young people, aged 18 to 24, were the most supportive age group at 59%.

Lars Osberg, professor of economics at Dalhousie University, said the poll was possibly inaccurate with, for example, the Atlantic Canada (63% support for the plan) sample at only 198 people. Liberals (62%) and NDP (63%) were the most supportive.

The pilot project has 4,000 people from three areas: Hamilton, Lindsay, and Thunder Bay. It emphasizes citizens with low incomes. Couples will get $24,027; singles will receive $16,989.

The first experiment will run one year without conditions. The reason for the experiment is to see if the basic income provisions will improve life quality and job prospects.

Osberg noted that the youth are the unemployed or the underemployed, generally, and that the basic income does not disincentivize work. Osberg thinks the basic income would not disincentive work, as some fear.

More information at:

Jack Hauen, “Majority support Ontario’s basic income plan, but many find $17,000 not enough: poll”, Financial Times, May 17th 2017

Eli Yufest, “Majority approves of Ontario’s basic income plan, many find $17,000 per year too little an amount“, Campaign Research, May 16th 2017

ONTARIO, CANADA: Applications for basic income pilot project reach residents at Thunder Bay and Hamilton

ONTARIO, CANADA: Applications for basic income pilot project reach residents at Thunder Bay and Hamilton

Picture credit to: CBC Halmilton.

 

The basic income pilot project is being rolled out in Ontario, Canada. The localities selected for this trial are Thunder Bay and Hamilton, at present, with Lindsay getting started later this fall. Randomly selected individuals, with ages between 18 and 64 years old, are receiving information packages about the basic income project, so they can choose to participate or not.

 

A basic income trial has been on the forge for some time in Ontario, having been reported in several occasions and with the support of the Thunder Bay, Hamilton and Lindsay mayors. With an overall cost of CAN$ 50 million per year and a running period of three years, the test program is designed to cover 4000 households. The trial’s random selection of participants is not limited to the urban parts of these localities, but also some of their rural territory.

 

The program is specifically aimed at people with low incomes and has a few conditions for eligibility (Thunder Bay case), such as having lived in the region for more than 12 months and some income-related thresholds, as shown in the following table:

 

Individual status Earning less than, CAN $
Single 33978
Couple 48054
Single, with disability 45978
Couple, one with disability 60054
Couple, both with disability 72054

 

Being a voluntary-based basic income program trial (unlike the Finish one), people receiving the enrollment packages get up to a month to decide whether they wish to participate or not. However, participation will entail further involvement in research and survey, as part of the trial.

 

There has already been an information roundtable about the basic income pilot project in Hamilton, on the 2nd of June. The pilot project has randomly assigned 1000 selections in Hamilton, which amounts for around 2% of all people in that locality who rely on provincial social assistance programs. Tom Cooper, that information session executive director, has stated that he is “pretty confident that the results will show that people are significantly better off as a result of getting a little better income and having income redistributed.”

 

More information at:

Benjamin Lascia, “ONTARIO, CANADA: Mayors react to guaranteed minimum income pilot announcement”, Basic Income News, May 25th 2017

Kate McFarland, “ONTARIO, CANADA: Government Announces Details of Minimum Income Pilot”, Basic Income News, April 25th 2017

Kate McFarland, “ONTARIO, CANADA: Government releases summary of consultations on minimum income pilot”, Basic Income News, March 22nd 2017

CBC News, “Basic income project applications being mailed out in Ontario”, CBC News, 20th June 2017

CBC News, “Got questions about the basic income pilot project? Come to the library on Monday”, CBC News, 28th May 2017

Taiwan: Potential basic income pilot ‘under discussion’

Ping Xu from UBI Taiwan has disclosed that a Basic Income pilot project is under discussion.

Xu made her remarks at her talks at Doshisha University on 21 April and at Kyoto Basic Income Weekend event during 22 and 23 April.

UBI Taiwan is laying the groundwork for a potential pilot program, although discussions are at an early stage and no determination or funding has been confirmed as of June. According to Tyler Prochazka from UBI Taiwan:

• UBI Taiwan has met with the Taichung Social Affairs Bureau to discuss a potential pilot project.

• UBI Taiwan has met with village chiefs, NGOs, and other relevant authorities to begin preparing the framework for the potential pilot program. The organization is looking at several locations in Taiwan to determine viability of the project.

• Currently, there is no funding for the pilot program. Preliminary research is being completed to create a framework for the project if funding is made available.

• UBI Taiwan will complete a comprehensive pilot program proposal by August 2017 to present to relevant authorities. The proposal will be crafted in coordination with international experts and local experts in Taiwan.

• UBI Taiwan is working with Academia Sinica to collect the first national polling of Taiwanese attitudes toward UBI.

Further updates on UBI Taiwan’s progress will be disclosed throughout the summer. In July, UBI Taiwan will begin its Summer Fellowship program, working with students to complete the preliminary research for the pilot program and increase awareness of basic income.


Reviewed by Russell Ingram

Photo CC BY-NC-ND 2.0 Chen Tao Liao

ONTARIO, CANADA: Mayors react to guaranteed minimum income pilot announcement

ONTARIO, CANADA: Mayors react to guaranteed minimum income pilot announcement

Kathleen Wynne. Credit to: CBS Hamilton.

Three communities across Ontario have been selected for the Province’s guaranteed minimum income pilot. Ontario will be rolling out a three-year study in late spring and fall 2017. Premier Kathleen Wynne made the announcement with details of the project in Hamilton on April 24th.

 

The stated goal of the pilot on the official website of the Ontario Government is to ”test whether a basic income can better support vulnerable workers, improve health and education outcomes for people on low incomes, and help ensure that everyone shares in Ontario’s economic growth.”

 

The mayors of each community – Lindsay, Thunder Bay, and Brantford/Hamilton/Brant County, expressed hopeful to positive reactions at the announcement that their cities had been chosen to pilot in the project.

 

 

Kawartha Lakes Mayor Andy Letham, which is home to the community of Lindsay, describes precarious work as a cause for concern in his community and admits that the status quo of society isn’t functioning well. “The cost of poverty on people’s mental health is real,” said Letham. “So how to we break these cycles?” Lindsay will host 2,000 of the total 4,000 participants.

 

Thunder Bay Mayor Keith Hobbs, a 34-year veteran of the local police force, described his experience with some members of the community: “I saw the same people all the time, like a revolving door.” Hobbs expressed excitement at the possibility of this project positively impacting the lives of those he had consistently interacted with. Workers and citizens of Thunder Bay have had to reinvent themselves as the region transitioned from industries like pulp and paper to health research institutes, law, and genomics.

 

Pulp and Paper Mills in Thunder Bay, Ontario

Pulp and Paper Mills in Thunder Bay, Ontario

Brantford Mayor Chris Friel expressed excitement to take part in a project that will reduce poverty and improve health and educational outcomes. Ron Eddy, the Mayor of Brant Country, stated that he looks forward to observing the results of the project. “The only way you’ll know the outcome is to try it out. So, let’s see what happens,” Mayor Eddy said.

 

Details on the Pilot

 

The basic income pilot will randomly select 4,000 individuals between ages 18 to 64 that meet certain criteria, and provide them with a minimum income despite their employment status. The plan will target populations who are in precarious work positions, those already on social assistance, and the homeless. The program will, however, target mostly the “working poor” according to Ontario’s Minister of Community and Social Services Helena Jaczek. Those receiving a minimum income will be compared to a control group, which will not receive payments. The project will look for outcomes using metrics like food security, health and health care usage, education and training, and labor market participation among others.

 

Recipients of the guaranteed minimum income will receive:

 

  • $16,989 per year for a single person (75 percent of the Canadian poverty line), less 50 percent of the recipient’s earnings from work;
  • $24,027 for a couple, less 50 percent of their earnings from work;
  • An additional $6,000 for those with disabilities.

 

In addition to this, recipients will continue to receive other provincial and child benefit payments.

 

With this version of a guaranteed minimum income, a person earning $12,000 a year would still receive a basic income of $10,989 (subtract $6,000, or half their earnings, from the base amount of $16,989) and therefore receive a total of $22,989. A recipient’s net income will still increase, with the minimum income still active, as earnings from work increase up until around a wage of $34,000, where the payments would disappear. The total cost of the project is expected at $50 million per year.

 

Hugh Segal, a former senator who was consulted for the project, noted in Manitoba’s “Mincome” experiment in the 1970’s that the community saw improvements in health with no drop in employment, and that the potential exists for the government to save money if it replaced the traditional social assistance programs like Ontario Works with a basic income. The Provincial government is also in the early stages of planning a fourth basic income pilot for the First Nations community.

 

More information at:

Kate McFarland, “Government Announces Detail of Minimum Income Pilot.” Basic Income News, 25th April 2017

“Ontario Basic Income Pilot.” Government of Ontario, 24th April 2017

Roderick Benns, “City of Kawartha Lakes mayor welcomes basic income pilot in Lindsay.” Precarious Work Chronicle, 25th April 2017

Roderick Benns, “Thunder Bay mayor says basic needs must be met as his city chosen for basic income pilot.” Precarious Work Chronicle, 26th April 2017. Web.

Vincent Ball, “Brantford, Brant part of basic income pilot.” Brantford Expositor, 24th April 2017

FINLAND: First Results from Pilot Study? Not Exactly

FINLAND: First Results from Pilot Study? Not Exactly

On Tuesday, May 9, an article published in The Independent alleged that Finland’s Basic Income Experiment has already produced evidence that unconditional payments lower stress and improve mental health for unemployed Finns.

This widely shared article generated rumors that the Finnish government has released the first results of this two-year pilot study, which commenced on January 1, including the above findings. These rumors are inaccurate, and the present post aims to address this misconstrual.

 

Background on Finland’s Basic Income Experiment

Directed by Kela, the Social Insurance Institution of Finland, Finland’s nationwide pilot study of basic income generated widespread international interest from its announcement in 2015 to its launch at the start of 2017. In its current design, the experiment is restricted to those between ages 25 and 58 who were receiving unemployment assistance at the end of 2016. Nonetheless, it differs from several other contemporary so-called “basic income experiments” in that the experimental group–consisting of 2,000 randomly selected individuals from the above target group–receives cash payments (€560 per month) that are indeed unconditional, individual, and not means tested (compare, for example, to the experiments planned or underway in Ontario, the Netherlands, Barcelona, and Livorno, Italy).

Many basic income supporters and followers are, no doubt, eagerly anticipating the results of this experiment, which will continue through December 31, 2018. Here, though, it is important to keep in mind several caveats–especially as rumors of initial results begin to surface.

 

1. Kela will publish no results prior to the end of the experiment (i.e. December 31, 2018).

In a blog post published in January, in response to the widespread media attention directed at the experiment, research team leader Olli Kangas and three colleagues explain that publishing any results during the course of the experiment runs the risk of influencing participants’ behavior:

A final evaluation of the effects of the basic income can only be made after a sufficiently long period of time has elapsed for the effects to become apparent. The two-year run of the experiment is not very long for changes in behaviour to materialise. The potential of the experiment, short as it is, to provide reliable results should not be undermined by reporting its effects while it is underway.

 

2. Kela will conduct no questionnaires or interviews of participants while the experiment is in progress.

As the same blog states, the researchers will minimize their reliance on questionnaires and interviews to gain information about study participants–again to minimize the effect of observation on behavior–relying instead on data available from administrative registries. If any individual questionnaires or interviews are used, they “will not be conducted without careful consideration, and not before the experiment has ended.”

 

3. Analysis of the experiment will focus on labor market effects.

A major reason for the Finnish government’s interest in basic income has been the policy’s potential to improve employment incentives (in contrast to Finland’s current unemployment benefits, which are reduced by 50% of earned income if a recipient takes a part-time job and which demand much bureaucratic oversight of individuals). Correspondingly, a main objective of the experiment, as stated by Kela, is to determine “whether there are differences in employment rates between those receiving and those not receiving a basic income.”

Some basic income proponents have criticized the Finnish pilot for its lack of attention to other potential beneficial effects of basic income, such as its effects on individual health and well-being; however, Kela has no current plans to examine such effects.

 

“Reduced Stress” Claim 

It is in this context that we must read The Independent’s recent article “Finland’s universal basic income trial for unemployed reduces stress levels, says official.”

As its data, the article quotes Kela official Marjukka Turunen (Head of Legal Affairs Unit) as saying, “There was this one woman who said: ‘I was afraid every time the phone would ring, that unemployment services are calling to offer me a job’,” and, “This experiment really has an indirect impact, also, on the stress levels [of people] and the mental health and so on.”

These quotes originate in a recent interview on WNYC’s podcast The Takeaway, in an episode on automation and the future of work, in which host John Hockenberry interviewed Turunen about Finland’s basic income experiment, having presented basic income as a possible policy response to technological unemployment. After stressing the potential of basic income to promote employment (by avoiding the welfare trap and reducing bureaucracy and paperwork), Turunen related the anecdote above in reply to a question in which Hockenberry turned about the effects of basic income on feelings of confidence and self-respect.

In comments to Basic Income News, Turunen explained that this situation involved a participant who agreed to participate in a media interview and volunteered this information to the reporter. While some participants themselves offer feedback to Kela, Kela itself is not allowed to divulge this information to the media, nor to provide any personal information about the study participants. However, this does not prevent participants themselves from volunteering to talk about the experiment to media, as in the present situation.

Thus, it is important not to mistake this unsolicited feedback from experiment participants for official and formal results–which are still more than a year and half away. As Turunen comments,

We do not have any results yet, not until the end of next year; these insights are coming from the customers themselves willing to talk about this in the media. And these are only insights, the results must be very carefully analyzed according to the information we only get at the end of next year.

 

More Information:

Kela, Basic Income Experiment 2017–2018. (Official website on the experiment.)

Olli Kangas, et al, “Public attention directed at the individuals participating in the basic income experiment may undermine the reliability of results,” Kela blog, January 16, 2017.

The Shift: Exploring America’s Rapidly Changing Workforce,” The Takeaway (podcast), May 4, 2017. (Marjukka Turunen’s remarks in context.)


Reviewed by Russell Ingram

Photo (Helsinki) CC BY-NC 2.0 Mariano Mantel