by Quentin Mathys | May 10, 2018 | News, Research
District of columbia Lincoln memorial Washington monument. Credit to: History Channel.
The district of Columbia has released on the 27th February 2018 a policy analysis that examines different approaches and strategies for providing a locally-funded guaranteed minimum income or universal basic income for its residents.
The study, named “Economic and policy impact statement: Approaches and strategies for providing a Minimum Income in the district of Columbia”, starts by evaluating the cost of living in absence of public social safety net assistance for three types of low-income households, 1) single adults without children, 2) single adults with one child, and 3) single adults with two children. The results show that a single adult without children would approximatively need an annual income of US$ 36 988 to meet their basic needs. For a single parent with one child, the annual income need is roughly US$ 66 113, while a single parent with two children would need about US$ 96 885 a year.
The paper then discusses the existing monetary and in-kind entitlements benefits, supports, and maintenance provided by the federal and District governments to low and moderate-income residents. According to the authors, the existing social safety net is strong enough to allow households who have full access to the public benefit programs to meet their basic needs. However, as Ryan Harrison underlines in his article about the report, households most in need for assistance do not qualify for the cash grants available, due to the work requirements of these means-tested policies.
In the next section of the study, the economic feasibility of implementing a basic income in the District is discussed. The authors explore three amounts for basic income where the first one is set at 100% of the Federal Poverty Line (FPL), the second one at 300% and the third one at 450% of the FPL. The associated gross cost of the three policies is estimated at 7, 21.5, and 32.2 billion US$ per year, respectively. According to the authors, the implementations of a basic income set at 450% of the FPL is the only approach that would allow all the households to meet their basic needs. This is debatable, since being above the FPL would, in principle, mean that basic needs were covered. However, the authors fear that such amount would lead to many households deciding to drop out of the workforce and making this implementation expensive and inefficient. This is also questionable, considering existing results from performed basic income pilots. Based on these issues, the report does not simulate the impact of providing a universal basic income in the Columbia district.
Furthermore, the authors only discuss the gross cost of implementing a basic income. Mentioning the net cost would have been relevant, as cost reductions can be expected in existing social assistance programs, and a restructuring of income taxes and /or other forms of taxes to finance the reform. The report, nevertheless, introduces an important discussion about the feasibility of a basic income implementation of in the district of Columbia.
More information at:
Susana Groves and John MacNeil, “Economic and policy impact statement: Approaches and strategies for providing a Minimum Income in the district of Columbia”, Office of the Budget Director of the Council of the District of Columbia, January 27th 2018
Ryan Harrison, “District of Columbia releases policy analysis for basic income”, Medium, April 8th 2018
“Council Budget Office releases Economic and Policy Impact Statement: Approaches and Strategies for Providing a Minimum Income in the District of Columbia”, David Grosso DC Council at-large, February 28th 2018
by Andre Coelho | Apr 24, 2018 | News
World Bank building. Picture credit to Financial Express.
The World Bank has released a draft report, published on the 20th of April, titled “The changing nature of work”, in which basic income is suggested as policy to “be read through the lens of ‘progressive universalism’”. This progress to a universal system should depend, according to World Bank analysts, on “basic social insurance” and also on a reliance on “flexible labour markets”, in a relationship that would not do without, though, targeting social assistance schemes.
The reason for maintaining conditional social assistance is, in this context, to “prioritize those at the bottom of the [income] distribution”. This maybe contrary to the (universal) basic income principle, but World Bank analysts consider important to identify those “who are the most vulnerable, where they live, and how vulnerable they are”. To address rising inequality and profound changes in the nature of work in the next few decades, basic income-like schemes are seen in this report as having “pros and cons”, which “may address challenges in coverage and take-up programs”. The advantages referred relate to more coverage and reduced stigmatization, but at the same time warnings are made to new possible challenges in administrative ruling and financing.
The report underlines the need to relax strict work regulations, stating that “stronger social protection systems can go hand in hand with more flexible labour markets”. A particular concern for labour costs to firms is expressed, especially when compared to technology. The World Bank’s view is that labour costs should generally go down (including unemployment benefits and minimum wages), associated with a “reformed social assistance and insurance systems”.
On the other hand, basic income – in the report often stated as “guaranteed minimum” – “may also ameliorate possible work disincentives”. That is clearly connected with the usually known as “poverty traps”, where people choose to remain eligible for social assistance, rather than risk going into formal employment and end up with less money (due to taxation). It is also linked to reduced administrative costs. Moreover, the report recognizes the importance of maintaining typical welfare services, like public health and education, and be careful in scrapping existing benefits, as some are not as prone to be immediately replaced by a basic income.
From a definition standpoint, World Bank analysts defend that basic income “is a process that serves the poor first, it recognizes that wider coverage is desirable (…) and allows countries to claw back benefits from the rich.” However, in their view, the progressive system envisioned should be a three-legged stool, as mentioned above: basic income, to cover “against catastrophic losses”, mandated social insurance, to “achieve an adequate level of savings”, and market-based voluntary savings, to complement the previous two.
Historically, the report recognizes, conditional benefits have gone a long way in achieving social security in many regions, both high and low income. That, combined with generally low uptake rates (60% in high-income countries and 20% of the poorest households in low-income countries), shows that there is room for improvement, although it remains unclear how conditional and unconditional social assistance should play out together, given this context, in the near future. Also, for financial reasons, the report advises low income countries to increase coverage (estimates put the elimination of poverty on a double-digit spending percentage relative to GDP, for those countries) of existing programs and enhance delivery platforms, instead of opting right now for a basic income. As far as financing is concerned, a particular emphasis is put on taxing “superstar corporations”, limiting their ability to escape taxation through loop-holes and tax havens, plus levelling the tax grounds between them (e.g.: Google, Facebook and others, which are usually less burdened with taxes than most other companies) and other companies. Eliminating energy subsidies, introducing or expanding carbon taxes and imposing inheritance or estate taxes are also possible routes for funding the “new social contract”, as envisioned by World Bank analysts.
More information at:
World Development Report 2019 Overview, “World Development Report 2019: The Changing Nature of Work”, The World Bank, 20th April 2018
by Andre Coelho | Apr 2, 2018 | News
Saksham Khosla, a research analyst at Carnegie India, has written a detailed report on the implementation of basic income in India. His research focuses on the political economy of administrative, economic and welfare reforms in India.
Less than a year ago, India’s Finance Minister, Arun Jaitley, presented the Indian government’s Economic Survey, which featured a 40-page chapter on basic income and its implementation in India. Khosla report now comes and offers path onward, recognizing the previous survey achievements and limitations. Briefly reviewing the Economic Survey and its features, he writes that “the survey’s central design features offer a weak foundation”, and that if not subject to a deeper analysis and debate it “will produce underwhelming results”.
The new report calls for a basic income trial in India (or several trials, as presently the case in the Netherlands). The rationale behind this assertion is that hard evidence is crucially needed, so the discussion can move “from academic conferences and opinion pages into parliamentary debate and legislation.” However, it warns about the relevance of such trials, arguing that none can be achieved without strong public support and clear economic fundamentals. It also notices that cutting through all existent social programs, although most being inefficient and expensive to administer, could “turn quickly from manna from heaven to actively undermining the Indian social contract”.
Finally, Khosla report also acknowledges the importance of developing and enhancing the recently deployed Aadhaar authentication system, plus other initiatives to boost digital payments and further financial inclusion, which, apart from the political and tax collection problems still to resolve, are key to a future basic income implementation in India.
More information at:
André Coelho, “INDIA: Finance Ministry debating UBI proposal from Economic Survey”, Basic Income News, July 4th 2017
Kate MacFarland, “INDIA: Government Economic Survey presents case for basic income“, Basic Income News, February 4th 2017
Saksham Khosla, “India’s Universal Basic Income: bedevilled by the details”, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2018
by Micah Kaats | Jan 16, 2018 | News
As many as 375 million people may have to switch jobs as a result of automation by 2030. This is according to a new report published by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), a private sector think tank and the business and economics research arm of McKinsey & Company.
According to MGI researchers, “the transitions will be very challenging – matching or even exceeding the scale of shifts of agriculture and manufacturing we have seen in the past.” Such dramatic shifts in the global labor market will demand proportionately dramatic responses from governments, businesses, and individuals. Specifically, the MGI report emphasizes the importance of providing transition and income support to workers.
The report, entitled “Jobs Lost, Jobs Gained: Workforce Transitions in a Time of Automation”, builds on previous MGI research suggesting that 50% of global work activities could theoretically be automated by modifying existing technologies. While only 5% of jobs are at risk of disappearing entirely, 6 in 10 of jobs have 30% of constituent work activities that could be automated. According to MGI researchers, the question is not whether or not automation will alter the nature of work, but how long it will take.
Their analysis model potential net employment changes over 12 years for more than 800 occupations in 46 countries, focusing particularly on China, Germany, India, Japan, Mexico, and the USA. The report also accounts for several factors that could affect the pace of automation including technological and financial feasibility, demographic changes to labor markets, wage dynamics, regulatory responses, and social acceptance.
The report finds that 75 million to 375 million workers, or 3 – 14% of the global workforce, may be displaced by automation by 2030. These effects will be particularly felt in high income countries. In the most extreme scenario, 32% of American workers (166 million people), 33% of German workers (59 million people), and 46% of Japanese workers (37 million people) will be forced out of their jobs by 2030.
However, there may not be any shortage of new jobs available. MGI’s researchers note that new jobs will need to be created to care for aging societies, raise energy efficiency, address challenges posed by climate change, provide goods and services to the growing global middle class, and build new infrastructure.
Automation itself may also have the potential to create at least as many jobs as it destroys. Historically, transformative technological advancements have often led to significant jobs growth across industries.
The real challenge will be to ensure a smooth and stable transition between jobs. According to MGI research, automation is likely to disproportionately affect workers over 40, and sustained investments in retraining programs will be necessary to prepare midcareer workers for new employment opportunities. The report notes that this will require “an initiative on the scale of the Marshall Plan…involving collaboration between the public and private sectors.”
The MGI researchers also emphasize the need for increased financial support during transitions. Workers will need unemployment insurance to compensate for lost wages, as well as supplemental income to offset wage depressions typical in transitioning economies. A universal basic income (UBI) may be capable of satisfying both needs.
The report points to completed UBI trials in Canada and India, which showed no significant reduction in work hours and demonstrated increases in quality of life, healthcare, parental leave, entrepreneurialism, education, and female empowerment. The report also references ongoing and planned UBI experiments in the United States, Uganda, Kenya, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands as programs to watch in the years to come.
The worldwide spread of automation may be inevitable, but according to researchers at the McKinsey Global Institute, the demise of human labor is not. Whether or not we can respond effectively to the needs of a changing economy will depend largely on our ability to ensure a secure and stable transition for displaced workers.
More information at:
James Manyika, Susan Lund, Michael Chui, Jacques Bughin, Jonathan Woetzel, Parul Batra, Ryan Ko, and Saurabh Sanghvi, “What the future of work will mean for jobs, skills, and wages”, McKinsey Global Institute, November 2017
by Micah Kaats | Dec 22, 2017 | News, Research
Recently, there has been a great deal of attention paid to the changing nature of work. From rising automation to the ever-expanding gig economy, the effects of shifting labor landscapes are being felt by governments, businesses, and workers around the world. A new report from Deloitte, a global consulting firm, in partnership with the Human Resources Professionals Association, wades into this discussion with an analysis of the Canadian workforce. In addition, the report offers an array of potential public policy responses to address disruptive trends in the labor market including a shorter workweek, flexible education pathways, and a basic income.
In the report, authors Stephen Harrington, Jeff Moir, and J. Scott Allinson provide analysis based on interviews with 50 leading experts, as well as a review of the relevant literature. The authors argue that Canada is on the verge of an “Intelligence Revolution” that will be shaped by three dominant trends: machine learning, increasing computing power, and automation. These “waves of disruptive change” are already being felt in the Canadian economy, and their effects will become increasingly significant over the next decade.
Specifically, the report identifies two overarching themes that have already begun to impact labor markets. First, as work becomes more decentralized, workers are increasingly finding themselves in temporary or contingent jobs. These “contingent workers” bring their skills to specific projects or tasks, moving on when the task is completed, and work for multiple companies simultaneously. These arrangements form the basis of the gig economy. Second, the researchers argue that automation is opening up new opportunities for collaborative work between machines and humans. While automation can cause job displacement in the short term, the researchers contend that new job opportunities will continue to arise as productivity increases.
However, the report also notes that individuals and institutions seem ill-prepared to adapt to the rapidly increasing pace of change. In Canada, the number of contingent workers has grown from 4.8 million in 1997 to 6.1 million in 2015. Today, approximately 1/3 of Canadian jobs are for contingent workers. However, temporary positions still pay 30% less on average than permanent positions, and private sector pension plans only cover 24% of the Canadian workforce. At the same time, while 41% of organizations have “fully implemented or made significant progress in adopting cognitive and AI technologies”, only 17% of business leaders report feeling ready to manage a workforce of robots, AI, or humans working side-by-side (p. 17).
In response, the report’s research team offers several suggestions. Eight job archetypes of the future are presented, and individuals are advised to develop “future-proof” human-centered skills in judgment, leadership, decision making, social awareness, systems thinking, and creativity. The report also recommends integrated partnerships between businesses and educational institutions to enable workers to meet the needs of a changing labor market.
However, the researchers also note that efforts by individuals and businesses alone will not be sufficient for Canada to “emerge as a winner in the Intelligence Revolution.” To this end, policy reforms must be adopted to reflect both the challenges and opportunities of a 21st century economy. Among these recommendations are a shorter workweek, increased consumption taxes, decreased income taxes, unemployment insurance, and a renewed commitment to immigration. Additionally, basic income is offered as a means to address rising automation. The researchers suggest that basic income may ease the strains of job displacement, provide support for individuals engaged in volunteer or social enterprises, and encourage entrepreneurial risk-taking.
You can read the report in full here.
