by Andre Coelho | Oct 1, 2018 | Research
A Portuguese civic movement for the promotion of basic income, named RBI-TT, has been collecting answers to a simple questionnaire on basic income, having done so already in 2016 and 2014. This way, it is possible to measure how people’s opinions change over time, at least those that answer the questionnaire online.
The questionnaire sets forth the following questions:
- Where you already familiar with the basic income idea?
- Do you support it?
- Would you support it if it was paid for with European funds?
- Would you support it if it implied eliminating unemployment benefits and reducing the highest pensions?
- Would you support it if it implied an increase in taxes for everyone?
- Would you support it if it implied such taxes that your net income would be reduced?
Additional questions aim at characterizing the respondents, according to age, gender, degree of schooling, occupation/activity and income level. This year’s evaluation is still ongoing, but the previous two editions gathered 2677 valid answers in total, allowing for relevant analysis.
Over these questionnaires, the percentage of people already familiar with the concept rose from 67 to 74%, while those not familiar with it get to like it at first sight, in a 51 to 72% rise, from 2014 to 2016. Here, it also clearly shows that the financing mechanism is crucial. On average, 73% of respondents support a basic income financed by European funds, while only 23% support a version which would leave them with less net income than today. This low support level for the latter version is, however, much higher among low earners than in high earners. Other interesting results are such that there is a higher incidence of unemployed or retired people supporting a basic income eliminating unemployment benefits and reducing higher pensions, than from those studying or working. And that men are more informed about basic income than women, even though the latter are more supportive of the concept.
The RBI-TT movement (UBI-AA standing for Universal Basic Income – From All to All) rests on a basic income solidarity mechanism which can be understood in this article, which was presented at the BIEN Conference 2018 in Tampere, Finland.
by Hannah Trippier | Sep 13, 2018 | News, Research
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has published a report suggesting that basic income would be better than their welfare system at supporting low income households in India. Similar evidence has been found for both Indonesia and Peru, where basic income was found to be beneficial compared to current welfare systems.
The report uses 2011-12 National Sample Survey data to analyse the Public Distribution System (PDS) in India, where subsidies for food (wheat, rice, sugar) and energy (kerosene) are provided at different levels according to a person’s position in relation to the poverty line. This welfare system was found to be both inefficient, with leakage in the procurement-transportation-distribution chain, and inequitable, in that around 20% of low income households do not receive any subsidy
The analysis compared PDS to a model of basic income. Their analysis found that a basic income outperforms PDS in terms of coverage, as basic income is universal. However, the analysis showed that the introduction of basic income would mean reduced targeting and generosity for lower income groups. At the lower end of the income scale, some households will gain in terms of relative benefits, whereas some will lose out. In the bottom decile the analysis found a greater share of losing households (58% losers compared to 42% gainers).
The authors noted that basic income would bring about a benefit in eliminating current operational inefficiencies in the PDS. They suggested that savings from this could be used to fund a more generous basic income that could mitigate the losses in lower income deciles. They ran another analysis with a higher basic income and found a greater share of gainers than losers in the bottom decile (60% gainers compared to 40% losers), suggesting a higher basic income would be more beneficial for this group. Alternatively, the authors also discuss the possibility of introducing additional programmes for households in this group, to supplement basic income and ensure they do not lose out.
More information at:
David Coady, Delphine Prady, “Universal Basic Income in Developing Countries: Options, and Illustration for India”, IMF Working Papers, July 31st2018
Rema Hanna, Benjamin A. Olken, “Universal Basic Incomes vs. Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries”, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Nº24939, August 2018
“Debate over universal basic income steps up as IMF weighs impacts”, Development Pathways, August 14th2018
“Growing debate around universality” sees diverging estimates of basic income”, Development Pathways, September 3rd2018
by Daniele Fabbri | Aug 29, 2018 | Research
Dr. Matthew Johnson. Picture credit to: Lancaster University
Dr. Matthew Johnson, in an article published on LabourList, examines the effects of universal basic income (UBI) on stress. He co-authors with Elliot Johnson a paper with the title “Stress, domination and basic income: considering a citizens’ entitlement response to a public health crisis“.
The paper is partially based on an international and interdisciplinary study, involving a team of more than thirty academics, titled “A Cross-cultural Working Group on Good Culture and Precariousness“, on how to identify and promote a culture capable of fostering the welfare of disadvantaged groups in societies in which accomplishment requires exposition to high degrees of socio-economic insecurity.
“We are facing a crisis of stress”, Johnson says, as researchers have shown that almost half of the cases of work related ill-health are due to stress, with a quarter of people in the United Kingdom affected by stress-related long-term health conditions, which weight heavily on medical expenses. If you have suffered illness due to stress then you may be able to get compensation from your workplace, you might want to contact a workmans comp attorney to see if you could take legal action.
While the mechanism connecting chronic stress to ill-health is still debated, there is a general consensus that stress contributes to a large breadth of conditions, he adds, and studies have shown that as the position in the workplace hierarchy decreases, physiological measures of stress increase, correlating with increased risk of cardiovascular diseases. These cardiovascular diseases could eventually lead to a cardiac event in the near future, so making sure that your workplace has been kitted out with equipment like the ZOLL AED Plus package will help to make sure that you are prepared for any situation that has arisen through workplace stress. You can read in the cited paper that: “The cause of stress in these circumstances is what the republican political philosopher, Philippe Pettit, has termed ‘domination’: being subject to arbitrary decisions of others made without reference to the interests of those affected by the decisions.”
Accusing neoliberal reforms involving promotion of flexibility as having exacerbated the problem, Johnson calls for an effort in promoting “freedom as non-domination”, in order to lessen the role of hierarchy in social relations which could be done through the implementation of UBI.
As John McDonnell of the Labour Party announced that the next Labour Party Manifesto may include a trial of UBI, the author stresses the need for it to also measure the physiological implications of stress, which would be an innovation in what concerns UBI trials. If you’re currently looking for a stress treatment, you could consider using CBD or related products such as redosing shrooms. These alternative medicines have been known to reduce work-related stress and anxiety in many patients. You could consider looking into companies like HerbMighty for detailed information about these products.
More information at:
Matthew Johnson, “Universal Basic Income can directly reduce work-related stress“, LabourList, August 20th 2018
by Andre Coelho | Aug 22, 2018 | Research
Ive Marx. Picture Credit to: University of Antwerp
A news article posted in Flanders Today refers to a report, headed by economist Ive Marx, which concludes that introducing basic income in the Netherlands can actually increase poverty while having only a small effect on inequality.
Marx, from the University of Antwerp, concluded that introducing a 700 €/month basic income to all citizens with ages between 18 and 64, and 165 €/month to all minors would have a yearly net cost of 94 million Euros. That, according to the research, would have to be funded by extra taxes, plus cutting on unemployment and child allowances. As a result, around 75% of adult citizens would lose out financially, compared to their actual situation given the present-day benefits structure in the Netherlands. According to the study’s parameters, around 30% of the adult population would lose more than 10% of their income, which would contribute to an increase of poverty in 3%. Marx has also added that “proponents of the system must show why it is superior. You would have to be almost crazy to introduce it.”
In spite of these discouraging results, the study itself is not explicitly referred to in the article above, and no link to it is supplied. This way, base assumptions cannot be verified and a relevant discussion about it initiated. Furthermore, the author has not replied to contact attempts, which would allow to report on the study’s details, and compare it to other research reports and experiments.
More information at:
Editorial Team at Flanders Today, “Basic income doesn’t work, Antwerp research suggests”, July 13th 2018
by Jelena Vitic | Aug 21, 2018 | News, Research
Picture credit to: Big Think.
On the 12th of July 2018, Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) released the report “Expanding Work Requirements in Non-Cash Welfare Programs”, in response to an executive order made in April 2018 on reducing poverty in America.
The poverty rate of 3%, as measured in the CEA report, is at an all-time low. Although a favorable result, the authors point out that “many non-disabled working-age adults do not regularly work, particularly those living in low-income households. Such non-working adults who receive welfare benefits […] can become reliant on welfare programs.” In an attempt to increase self-sufficiency in recipients of benefits, they propose strengthening and increasing work requirements.
Ed Dolan reflects on the results outlined in the report in his article for the Niskanen center. He poses four questions that challenge the report’s main conclusions.
- Are the measures of poverty used in the report appropriate?
In the report poverty was measured through consumption starting in 1980, when the first reliable data is available. After adjusting for changes in purchasing power, the results show that the poverty rate has fallen compared to 1980. Although this approach has solid ground in research, Dolan argues that alternative measures produce different results (examples available here and here), mainly due to different definitions of poverty itself and using different years as the base for comparison.
- Who are the recipients?
The CEA distinguishes between two groups that currently receive welfare support: i. recipients unable to work, and ii. non-disabled recipients able to work. They report that non-disabled recipients have lower employment rates compared to the general population of working age. The authors explain this finding with the fact that recipients receive less benefits as their income raises which demotivates them to find work.
Dolan challenges this argument by saying that recipients cannot be easily grouped into non-disabled and disabled welfare beneficiaries. The Kaiser Family Foundation study found that some individuals that reported not working due to some form of disability do not meet the social security disability requirements for Supplemental Security Income (SSI) or Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) support, making them officially non-disabled. These individuals are unlikely to get employed despite policy adjustments, effective tax rates and work requirements.
- Are work requirements effective?
According to the CEA, there is sufficient evidence to support the claim that work requirements would be effective in reducing dependency on welfare benefits and increasing employment. Their argument is based on the welfare reform that took place in the 1990s.
Dolan disagrees with this conclusion, pointing out that the golden standard among experts for evaluating the 1990s reform is a series of eleven experiments known as the National Evaluation of Welfare-to-Work Strategies, conducted in the 1990s across the country with each lasting five years. In these experiments, participants were divided into two groups. The treatment group received benefits as a function of work requirements, while the control group continued to receive payments without conditions. The treatment group had modest gains in employment and there was a 1% decrease in total income on average. The results showed that the increase in wages was often smaller than the decrease in benefits. Finally, positive results were produced only where administrative support was provided (one-on-one interactions, training etc.). Dolan believes this provides little evidence that work requirements would help recipients move towards self-sufficiency. He also criticizes the CEA report for not emphasizing the crucial role of administrative support.
- What is the real agenda?
Dolan believes that work requirements are not likely to be effective at increasing employment and raising self-sufficiency: “Think of it this way. As currently configured, the message to in-kind welfare beneficiaries is, ‘We encourage you to work, but if you do work, we will take your benefits away.’ Adding work requirements changes the message so that it becomes, ‘If you work, we will take your benefits away, but we will also take them away if you don’t work.'” However, as a tool to lower welfare payments and reduce administrative costs work requirements could be effective, since more individuals would be excluded from the system, according to Dolan.
More information at:
“CEA Report: Expanding Work Requirements in Non-Cash Welfare Programs“, Council of Economic Advisers, July 12th 2018
Executive Office of the President, “Reducing Poverty in America by Promoting Opportunity and Economic Mobility“, Executive Order 13828, April 10th 2018
Ed Dolan, “Do we really want expanded work requirements in non-cash welfare programs?“, July 23rd 2018
MaryBeth Musumeci, Rachel Garfield, and Robin Rudowitz, “Medicaid and Work Requirements: New Guidance, State Waiver Details and Key Issues“, January 16th 2018
by Jelena Vitic | Aug 2, 2018 | News, Research
Picture credit to: iStock
The start of the longest and largest Universal Basic Income (UBI) experiment in Kenya and the approaching end of the trial in Finland spark a new discussion among experts on the effects of ‘no-strings attached’ money transfers.
An article published in Nature in May 2018 discussed the importance of randomized trials in informing researchers and policy makers alike about the feasibility of an UBI scheme. The article states that critics of the currently employed conditional welfare systems believe that the limited results do not justify large administrative costs that come with such policies. Some policy-makers see UBI as a more affordable alternative that has more potential to alleviate poverty, according to the article, but the costs and benefits of UBI schemes still have not been clearly identified. With that in mind, many decision makers prefer to employ a data-driven approach by making randomized trials, the most universally accepted method of gathering information about the effects of UBI. However, even supporters of the evidence-based approach claim that designing and conducting UBI trials comes with its own set of difficulties. They point out that it requires a large amount of planning and researchers need to look for benefits in a wide variety of areas such as health, education, nutrition and job-seeking. Furthermore, lack of standardized goals and agreed upon areas of impact pose another challenge for advocates of UBI trials.
Damon Jones, an economist at the University of Chicago believes that even clearly demonstrated benefits will not necessarily indicate that UBI would work in practice. He arguments that most resources for the trials come from private funds and only include a small portion of the population. Hence, he thinks trials do not say much about the affordability of big government programs and the willingness of people to fund them through tax increases. On the other hand, he adds that despite these inherent limitations research still should be done.
Others propose that trials have an ongoing impact on UBI discussions. Rob Reich, a political scientist at California’s Stanford University thinks trials will help researchers identify flaws in the process, refine goals and impact areas as well as provide policy makers with some answers they are looking for. Furthermore, supporters argue that over time the studies will provide more insight on the costs and benefits of guaranteed income schemes. Proponents of UBI trials recognize that despite being important, updating research is expensive.
On the other hand, Quartz interviewed experts that expressed doubt whether randomized trials are the best option for analyzing the effects of UBI in the first place. According to Karl Widerquist, many effects will play out over the years and will not be revealed during the experiment, regardless of its size and cost. Nonetheless, he notes there is very little downside to trying it out. Others believe that the benefits have already been proven by initiatives such as Alaska’s Permanent Fund Dividend and there is no need for more research. Matthew Zwolinski adds that UBI has to be “robust enough to survive the political process”, meaning that he sees gradual changes having a higher likelihood of being implemented, compared to radical policies.
Although opinions differ, supporters hope that big trials like the one in Kenya will open the door for future research and help the discussion move forward.
More information at:
Carrie Arnold, “Nature: Money for nothing: the truth about universal basic income”, Nature, News Feature, May 30th 2018
Kate McFarland, “Overview of current basic income related experiments (October 2017)”, Basic Income News, October 19th 2017
Kate McFarland, “US/KENYA: GiveDirectly Officially Launches UBI experiment”, Basic Income News, November 17th 2017
Olivia Goldhill, “We’re giving up on universal basic income before the evidence is in”, Quartz, May 29th 2018
