by Faun Rice | Nov 13, 2018 | Research
Photo by Stefan Kühn, CC BY-SA 3.0
The CESifo Group of Munich is a European research group that seeks to employ both high-quality economic theory and the methods of an empirical institute. Operating since 1999, CESifo is a collaboration between the Center for Economic Studies (CES), the ifo Institute (“Information and Forschung” or research), and the CESifo GmbH (Munich Society for the Promotion of Economic Research).
CESifo publishes a quarterly journal, the latest issue of which is devoted to Unconditional Basic Income (UBI). Five of seven pieces within this 48-page publication present a variety of perspectives on UBI research and theory, predominantly addressing the European context.
- Straubhaar, Thomas, “Universal Basic Income – New Answer to New Questions for the German Welfare State in the 21st Century”, CESifo Forum 19 (3), 2018, 03–09 | Details| PDF Download
The focus: Transforming social support in Germany by replacing Bismarckian welfare state ideals
Straubhaar describes a series of proximate social and economic changes due to globalization, aging societies, income polarization, and dissolution of traditional economic safety nets. He comments that the contemporary version of the welfare state is founded upon 19th century Bismarckian principles that rely on a classic population pyramid (weighted by youth at the bottom), a male-breadwinner model, a fast-growing economy, and a labor-focused Protestant work ethic, none of which will continue to be relevant indefinitely. He proposes UBI as a welfare state model that would completely replace all other publicly financed social support and provide a 21st century solution to the aforementioned changes, particularly in Germany, but as a model for the rest of the world.
- Torry, Malcolm, “Some Lessons from the Recent UK Debate about Universal Basic Income”, CESifo Forum 19 (3), 2018, 10–14 | Details| PDF Download
The focus: Enhancing UBI data distribution and ensuring that discussions maintain a clear definition of the difference between UBI and other related economic policies
Torry highlights a number of key events and issues from the UK that have broader relevance for the global community interested in UBI. The first discusses the important use of microsimulation to predict the impact of economic policies on households of varying incomes (for example, to estimate the loss of disposable income to low-income families if means-tested benefits remain or are removed). The second relates a story in which a public organization cherry-picked UBI data, to which Torry simply says that high-quality research ought to be better distributed. The third and fourth call the reader’s attention to the importance of using specific definitions of UBI schemes and not allowing the term to be misused.
- De Wispelaere, Jurgen, Antti Halmetoja and Ville-Veikko Pulkka, “The Rise (and Fall) of the Basic Income Experiment in Finland”, CESifo Forum 19 (3), 2018, 15–19 | Details| PDF Download
The focus: Improving the international understanding of Finland’s basic income experiment, its origins, and its limitations
The Finnish basic income experiment began as a one-line commitment in the national Government Programme in 2015. Kela, the Finnish Social Insurance Institution, proposed several experiment design options, and a two-year control trial began in January 2017. Kela will evaluate the results and present them to Parliament in 2019.
Basic income stakeholders have become increasingly critical of the trial parameters, raising concerns about the limits of the sample and the pilot’s restricted scope and goals. The authors argue that proponents of UBI initially overstated the extent of the Finnish government’s commitment and capabilities, heralding the commitment as a “watershed” moment for European basic income, when in fact the Finnish experiment and others have been limited from the outset by policy inertia, existing budgetary and taxation systems, and other institutional limitations. The pilot program is designed to assess basic income as a means of activating the labour market, a politically safe goal, and was never likely to result in policy changes of the kind UBI advocates desire to see.
- Colombino, Ugo and Nizamul Islam, “Basic Income and Flat Tax: The Italian Scenario”, CESifo Forum 19 (3), 2018, 20–29 | Details| PDF Download
The focus: Evaluating proposed basic income-related policy packages in Italy and comparing their political origins
Like other European countries, Italy has seen several basic income proposals that have yet to be implemented. Several current potential models are rooted in different political ideologies and thus provide an interesting comparison. The first, “Reddito di Inclusione,” (RdI) is a basic income scheme that targets the most impoverished segment of the population in practice but is intended to be universal. The second, “Reddito di Cittadinanza” (RdC) is means-tested and only covers the population “below the relative poverty threshold” (20). Another model, proposed by Istituo Bruno Leoni (a think tank), involves both basic income and a flat tax.
The authors provide a basic overview of the differences between UBI, means-tested guaranteed income, and negative income tax. They then simulate and evaluate the various government-proposed combinations of policies, concluding that while it is possible to design a fiscally neutral policy package, current government proposals have not yet done so.
- Widerquist, Karl, “The Devil’s in the Caveats: A Brief Discussion of the Difficulties of Basic Income Experiments”, CESifo Forum 19 (3), 2018, 30–35 | Details| PDF Download
The focus: Making UBI research accessible and understandable, particularly with regard to its limitations
Widerquist’s basic thesis is that, contrary to popular representations of policy research, all UBI experiments contain a significant list of caveats. He argues that science journalism has not done an adequate job of communicating the limitations of UBI studies, or indeed any social sciences research, to the public. Furthermore, specialist researchers’ lists of caveats are inadequate for communicating a study’s limitations. Widerquist has an upcoming book that will address both best practices in UBI research given its inherent difficulties and best practices in communication the results of said research to the public and policymakers. In this article, he identifies four broad strategies: (1) iteratively designing studies with public feedback, so that research directly addresses the questions relevant to local stakeholders; (2) highlighting UBI’s impact in publications, rather than its side-effects (even though the latter might be more interesting to researchers); (3) attempting to define a “bottom line” or generalizable conclusion from research; and (4) addressing and discussing ethical controversies.
- Clauss, Michael and Stefan Remhof, “A Euro Area Finance Ministry – Recipe for Improved Governance?”, CESifo Forum 19 (3), 2018, 36–43 | Details| PDF Download
The authors discuss the possibility and potential function of a euro-area finance ministry. Such an organization could either martial Europe’s national fiscal policies to align them throughout the region, or it could be one more “layer” of fiscal authority in each European nation. This paper does not explicitly address UBI.
- Nam, Chang Woon and Peter Steinhoff, “The ‘Make in India’ Initiative”, CESifo Forum 19 (3), 2018, 44–45 | Details| PDF Download
The authors discuss a 2014 federal initiative to promote industrial manufacturing in India. This paper does not explicitly address UBI.
More information at:
“CESifo Forum 03/2018 (Autumn): Unconditional Basic Income”, 01-48, ifo Institute, Munich, 2018
by Hannah Trippier | Oct 16, 2018 | Research
A systematic review has been published that looks at the effects of cash transfers on social determinants of health and health inequalities in sub-Saharan Africa.
Researchers considered both quantitative (both experimental and quasi-experimental) and qualitative studies to be included in the review. To be eligible for inclusion quantitative studies needed: to be conducted in a population of people in sub-Saharan Africa; to investigate the effect of conditional or unconditional cash transfers when compared with other cash transfers, or no cash transfers; report at least one of the prespecified socio-economic outcomes. Qualitative studies that looked at barriers and facilitators to a successful cash transfer intervention were included. Further details of the review methods can be found in the review protocol.
Fifty-three studies were included: 3 randomised controlled trials (RCTs), 22 cluster-RCTs, 8 quasi-experimental studies and 20 qualitative studies. The studies were conducted in 14 countries across sub-Saharan Africa. Due to the diversity of populations and outcomes reported, the researchers did not conduct meta-analysis, instead opting for a narrative synthesis following the approach recommended by Popay et al. (2006). For the qualitative studies, thematic synthesis was carried out to combine the data, following the Thomas and Harden (2008) approach.
The review found that cash transfers can be effective in tackling structural determinants of health such as poverty, education, household resilience, child labour, social capital, civic participation, and birth registration. The review further reported an impact on intermediate determinants including material circumstances (e.g. nutrition, savings), psychosocial circumstances (e.g. self-esteem, reduced stress and anxiety), sexual risk behaviours among adolescents and adolescent empowerment. For this analysis the researchers lumped together unconditional and conditional cash transfer interventions when compared to a control group who did not receive any cash transfers.
Little evidence was reported in the review that compared unconditional and conditional cash transfers. Three studies found that conditional cash transfers were more effective than unconditional cash transfers in increasing school attendance (Baird et al 2011, Robertson et al 2012, Akresh et al 2013, 2016). On the other hand, one study in Malawi found significantly reduced psychological distress among adolescent schoolgirls who received unconditional cash transfers compared to conditional cash transfers (Baird et al. 2013).
More information at:
“The impact of cash transfers on social determinants of health and health inequalities in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review”, Health Policy and Planning, 2018
by Harry Curzon | Oct 4, 2018 | Research
A new research study carried out by Jeff Hemsley, Martha Garcia”Murillo and Ian P. MacInnes investigates how social media affects the discussion and spread of policy and ideas with a case study focus on the topic of Universal Basic Income (UBI).
The researchers argue that social media provides an important space for analysis, with Twitter, in particular, being dominated by policy advocates and policy issues. The study thus uses UBI discussion as a case study to determine how policy issues disseminate on social media, rather than focusing on the details of UBI. Social media (more on that below) has taken over across the globe, with many ways that individuals and businesses can connect to help with a myriad of issues. Because of this reliance, there is now adaptable technology used for these websites from Instagram automation to Twitter management so businesses are able to be in every place ‘at once’.
The researchers used keyword collection on Twitter’s application programming interfaces (API) to identify tweets containing any of 23 specific terms related to UBI, dating from July 25th to December 12th of 2016. Within the captured time frame, Twitter users posted a total of 157,000 tweets related to UBI, at an average of 1,127 messages per day. The authors conclude that because the data collection of tweets related to UBI did not break the Twitter rate limit API, it can be inferred that discussion of the topic at the given period was not significantly numerous.
The researchers then reviewed these tweets using content analysis methods to code UBI-related tweets as informative or emotionally resonant, and to examine whether this affected users’ perceptions of UBI. They conclude that, in the UBI discussion space, “interesting” tweets are more likely to be shared, but tweets that have a more emotionally resonant message are far more likely to draw a greater number of new users into the online discussion about UBI. This is often known as one’s “presence” or the ability for their Twitter messages to be seen and spread to other uses. To that end many Twitter users use growth services to increase their presence (see this Tweepi site review for more information on growth services) and that may also explain how UBI messages have been so widespread on Twitter. Social media platforms are all similar in the way that emotional posts, perhaps made on Instagram, are the most viewed and shared. They could also use an Instagram bot, or several bots, to help boost the posts exposure on the audience’s newsfeeds. Often, users of these platforms try to spread messages that help them to gain followers and viewers to their profiles so they can have more people looking at the important messages they want to put out into the world. If you’re looking to do the same with your posts, The Small Business Blog is just one of the websites social media influencers go to in order to find ways to turn their important messages into popular posts. The spread of this influence may warrant further study but for now, the researchers are focussing on how Twitter itself spreads messages.
Because tweets coded as “interesting” are often seen and posted by users already within a “UBI positive echo chamber,” whereas “emotionally resonant” tweets trigger emotional responses which can “activate existing users and can bring users into the discussion space who may participate again in the future.”
For policy issues like UBI to produce further discussion and influence greater numbers of users on social media, the academics conclude that “policy advocates likely need both emotional messages that resonate with people as well as informative messages that are resources for the community.”
For more information:
Jeff Hemsley, Martha Garcia”Murillo and Ian P. MacInnes, “Tweets That Resonate: Information Flows and the Growth of Twitter’s Universal Basic Income Discussion Space,” Policy & Internet, 15 July 2018.
Picture Credit: Financial services and Social media
by Andre Coelho | Oct 1, 2018 | Research
A Portuguese civic movement for the promotion of basic income, named RBI-TT, has been collecting answers to a simple questionnaire on basic income, having done so already in 2016 and 2014. This way, it is possible to measure how people’s opinions change over time, at least those that answer the questionnaire online.
The questionnaire sets forth the following questions:
- Where you already familiar with the basic income idea?
- Do you support it?
- Would you support it if it was paid for with European funds?
- Would you support it if it implied eliminating unemployment benefits and reducing the highest pensions?
- Would you support it if it implied an increase in taxes for everyone?
- Would you support it if it implied such taxes that your net income would be reduced?
Additional questions aim at characterizing the respondents, according to age, gender, degree of schooling, occupation/activity and income level. This year’s evaluation is still ongoing, but the previous two editions gathered 2677 valid answers in total, allowing for relevant analysis.
Over these questionnaires, the percentage of people already familiar with the concept rose from 67 to 74%, while those not familiar with it get to like it at first sight, in a 51 to 72% rise, from 2014 to 2016. Here, it also clearly shows that the financing mechanism is crucial. On average, 73% of respondents support a basic income financed by European funds, while only 23% support a version which would leave them with less net income than today. This low support level for the latter version is, however, much higher among low earners than in high earners. Other interesting results are such that there is a higher incidence of unemployed or retired people supporting a basic income eliminating unemployment benefits and reducing higher pensions, than from those studying or working. And that men are more informed about basic income than women, even though the latter are more supportive of the concept.
The RBI-TT movement (UBI-AA standing for Universal Basic Income – From All to All) rests on a basic income solidarity mechanism which can be understood in this article, which was presented at the BIEN Conference 2018 in Tampere, Finland.
by Hannah Trippier | Sep 13, 2018 | News, Research
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has published a report suggesting that basic income would be better than their welfare system at supporting low income households in India. Similar evidence has been found for both Indonesia and Peru, where basic income was found to be beneficial compared to current welfare systems.
The report uses 2011-12 National Sample Survey data to analyse the Public Distribution System (PDS) in India, where subsidies for food (wheat, rice, sugar) and energy (kerosene) are provided at different levels according to a person’s position in relation to the poverty line. This welfare system was found to be both inefficient, with leakage in the procurement-transportation-distribution chain, and inequitable, in that around 20% of low income households do not receive any subsidy
The analysis compared PDS to a model of basic income. Their analysis found that a basic income outperforms PDS in terms of coverage, as basic income is universal. However, the analysis showed that the introduction of basic income would mean reduced targeting and generosity for lower income groups. At the lower end of the income scale, some households will gain in terms of relative benefits, whereas some will lose out. In the bottom decile the analysis found a greater share of losing households (58% losers compared to 42% gainers).
The authors noted that basic income would bring about a benefit in eliminating current operational inefficiencies in the PDS. They suggested that savings from this could be used to fund a more generous basic income that could mitigate the losses in lower income deciles. They ran another analysis with a higher basic income and found a greater share of gainers than losers in the bottom decile (60% gainers compared to 40% losers), suggesting a higher basic income would be more beneficial for this group. Alternatively, the authors also discuss the possibility of introducing additional programmes for households in this group, to supplement basic income and ensure they do not lose out.
More information at:
David Coady, Delphine Prady, “Universal Basic Income in Developing Countries: Options, and Illustration for India”, IMF Working Papers, July 31st2018
Rema Hanna, Benjamin A. Olken, “Universal Basic Incomes vs. Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries”, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Nº24939, August 2018
“Debate over universal basic income steps up as IMF weighs impacts”, Development Pathways, August 14th2018
“Growing debate around universality” sees diverging estimates of basic income”, Development Pathways, September 3rd2018
by Daniele Fabbri | Aug 29, 2018 | Research
Dr. Matthew Johnson. Picture credit to: Lancaster University
Dr. Matthew Johnson, in an article published on LabourList, examines the effects of universal basic income (UBI) on stress. He co-authors with Elliot Johnson a paper with the title “Stress, domination and basic income: considering a citizens’ entitlement response to a public health crisis“.
The paper is partially based on an international and interdisciplinary study, involving a team of more than thirty academics, titled “A Cross-cultural Working Group on Good Culture and Precariousness“, on how to identify and promote a culture capable of fostering the welfare of disadvantaged groups in societies in which accomplishment requires exposition to high degrees of socio-economic insecurity.
“We are facing a crisis of stress”, Johnson says, as researchers have shown that almost half of the cases of work related ill-health are due to stress, with a quarter of people in the United Kingdom affected by stress-related long-term health conditions, which weight heavily on medical expenses. If you have suffered illness due to stress then you may be able to get compensation from your workplace, you might want to contact a workmans comp attorney to see if you could take legal action.
While the mechanism connecting chronic stress to ill-health is still debated, there is a general consensus that stress contributes to a large breadth of conditions, he adds, and studies have shown that as the position in the workplace hierarchy decreases, physiological measures of stress increase, correlating with increased risk of cardiovascular diseases. These cardiovascular diseases could eventually lead to a cardiac event in the near future, so making sure that your workplace has been kitted out with equipment like the ZOLL AED Plus package will help to make sure that you are prepared for any situation that has arisen through workplace stress. You can read in the cited paper that: “The cause of stress in these circumstances is what the republican political philosopher, Philippe Pettit, has termed ‘domination’: being subject to arbitrary decisions of others made without reference to the interests of those affected by the decisions.”
Accusing neoliberal reforms involving promotion of flexibility as having exacerbated the problem, Johnson calls for an effort in promoting “freedom as non-domination”, in order to lessen the role of hierarchy in social relations which could be done through the implementation of UBI.
As John McDonnell of the Labour Party announced that the next Labour Party Manifesto may include a trial of UBI, the author stresses the need for it to also measure the physiological implications of stress, which would be an innovation in what concerns UBI trials. If you’re currently looking for a stress treatment, you could consider using CBD or related products such as redosing shrooms. These alternative medicines have been known to reduce work-related stress and anxiety in many patients. You could consider looking into companies like HerbMighty for detailed information about these products.
More information at:
Matthew Johnson, “Universal Basic Income can directly reduce work-related stress“, LabourList, August 20th 2018
