Maximilian Sommer, “A Feasible Basic Income Scheme for Germany”

Source: Springer

Source: Springer

Economist Maximilian Sommer (Katholische Universität Eichstätt – Ingolstadt) has published a book-length investigation into a financially feasible basic income scheme for Germany, encompassing arguments for an unconditional basic income, implementation details, and anticipated consequences of the policy.

The model that Sommer proposes is based on a negative income tax.

From the publisher’s description:
“This book analyzes the consequences that would arise if Germany’s means-tested unemployment benefits were replaced with an unconditional basic income. The basic income scheme introduced is based on a negative income tax and calibrated to be both financially feasible and compatible with current constitutional legislation. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) the author examines the impact of the reform on the household labor supply as well as on both poverty and inequality measures. It is shown that by applying reasonable values for both the basic income and the implied marginal tax rate imposed on earned incomes, efficiency gains can be reconciled with generally accepted value statements. Furthermore, as the proposal includes a universal basic income for families, child poverty could be reduced considerably. The estimates are based on the discrete choice approach to labor supply.”

Free previews of the books are available at the publisher’s website.

Reference:

Maximilian Sommer, “A Feasible Basic Income Scheme for Germany: Effects on Labor Supply, Poverty, and Income Inequality“, Springer, 2016

Scholars urge Italy to adopt Guaranteed Minimum Income

Scholars urge Italy to adopt Guaranteed Minimum Income

Italy needs to introduce a Guaranteed Minimum Income as soon as possible, following the example of other European countries. This is the central message of the letter published below, addressed to the Italian government and signed by sixty economists and scholars from Italy, France, Germany, United Kingdom, Finland, Sweden, Belgium, Netherlands, Greece, Spain and United States, among others.

The letter was published on February 26 in the Italian daily L’Unità. The promoters of the initiative are Ugo Colombino, economist at the University of Turin, and Giovanni Perazzoli, welfare expert and author of the book “Contro La Miseria. Viaggio nell’Europa del nuovo welfare”.

Italy does not have measures of income support and unemployment welfare comparable to those in place across Europe: Arbeitlosgeld II in Germany, Revenu de solidarité active in France, Jobseeker allowance in the UK, etc. International institutions like the IMF and the European Commission are putting pressure on Italy to adopt similar welfare measures. The position of the Italian government remains unclear. Much has been done to reduce the gap with the rest of Europe, although such actions have not received significant media attention. It is important to remember various local initiatives, draft bills by some political parties, the work of several parliamentary committees and proposals from think tanks like “Alliance against poverty”, “LaVoce.info”, “Basic Income Network Italy”. Small but significant new measures are contained in the 2016 Budget Law, for example the national extension of the experiment with measures supporting active inclusion, also known as SIA.

We believe this is the right moment for the Italian government to give a new push in this neglected area. A reform that aligns unemployment welfare with other universal systems in Europe cannot be postponed any longer. With the establishment of the Onofri Commission in 1996, sponsored by the then Prime Minister Romano Prodi, it seemed that we were just one step away from this much needed reform. Almost twenty years passed since the failure of that initiative, and the situation today is more or less as it was then. Meanwhile many changes occurred in the rest of Europe, leaving Italy further behind. While some countries contemplate experimenting with a radical option like an Unconditional Basic Income (see for instance Netherlands and Finland), in Italy there is no Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI) comparable to other European countries. Welfare reform in the rest of Europe did not undermine the universal principle of unemployment welfare: no political party in these countries would renounce that. A GMI for the unemployed is not a new form of welfare that needs more testing and calibration. By adopting a GMI, the Italian government would not move into unknown territory, but simply introduce something that has been a central pillar of the European social model for decades (but also Australia and Canada, among others). The measure finds consensus across the political spectrum, from liberalism to nearly every section of the left, certainly the reformist left.

Research has proven that universal welfare forms like the GMI reduce dependency in favour of efficiency. They produce incentives to work and complement a culture of work, rather than denying it. IMF director Christine Lagarde underlined that if Italy wants to grow again, it needs to introduce a “welfare reform that institutes a universal unemployment subsidy”, to complement the recent measures introduced by the Jobs Act. The European Commission and the European Parliament also saw the introduction of a GMI as something necessary.

A common objection is that unemployment subsidies can increase illegal work. But in the rest of Europe the GMI works as a key barrier against illegal work. Employment centres can in fact monitor those who receive a subsidy, preventing them from working illegally. A small percentage of rule-breaking is to be expected, but this does not undermine the general efficiency of the mechanism. Because the GMI is a form of universalist welfare, it does not discourage job search, but rather increases incentives and opportunities for job seekers, be it by having the income to hire a professional resume service to help them, or by financially supporting them through these times. Leaving social assistance is easier because one has the certainty that a basic safety net is there if needed. Vice versa, time-bound subsidies produce a negative incentive: people become dependent on the subsidy and tend to work illegally or not work at all, until the subsidy is stopped. Universal benefits produce less distortions than selective ones.

Italy does not have employment centres of the kind found in France, Germany, UK etc. This is an item that the Italian government has already put in its agenda, and that needs to be solved. In an advanced economy, job search cannot be left to newspaper ads, word of mouth, or family acquaintances. A developed country needs to set up an efficient network of employment centres. To make them work, there is a need for universal unemployment welfare, or else mediation will always be conducted by other actors with particularistic effects unfairly favouring some groups over others.

There are two other arguments showing that universal welfare increases the willingness to work. The first is that international comparisons and empirical evidence show that universal welfare reduces risk aversion, and favours reskilling, mobility and individual entrepreneurship. The second is that if welfare is not clearly distinct from work, work itself becomes a form of welfare. These forms of work become a significant burden on state coffers, lead to welfare dependency, and undermine real work, because people that are assigned certain roles and tasks are not necessarily selected on the basis of merit.

We need to avoid adopting diluted mechanisms compared to other well-tested European examples. Welfare that is exclusively targeted at the very poor falls under these undesirable measures. It fosters dependency, and research shows that families in poverty, when receiving selective benefits, will continue to remain poor exactly to continue receiving benefits. As elsewhere in Europe, A GMI would only work if it is directed at individuals, rather than families, and is administered on a universal basis.

The Italian social protection budget is comparable in size to that of other European countries. But Italy spends much more than others in pensions, without actually having a better and fairer pension system. We know that this system needs adjustments. It is clear, however, that we cannot build a new intergenerational consensus without conducting a general overhaul of welfare. After WWII, Italy did not take up the option of adopting a universal unemployment welfare of the kind that, starting from United Kingdom, was adopted by all other European countries. A discussion took place in 1947 with the D’Aragona Commission. It is likely that for the same reason Article 38 of the Italian Constitution leaves open the option of introducing a universal welfare on Beveridge’s model. Article 1 of the Constitution does not impede the adoption of a GMI, but rather stresses the need for it. In the countries that adopt such universal forms, work culture is strengthened. A GMI is a safety net that enables the improvement of work, freeing it from the uncertainty of selective welfare benefits.

A reformist and modernising agenda cannot leave out such important changes. We understand the significant financial and political challenges faced by the Italian government. We appreciate the institution of a national fund to fight poverty and social exclusion, introduced in the 2016 Budget – even though available funds are limited, targeted beneficiaries few, and selection criteria problematic. Even if nothing more can be done at the moment, it would be important for the Italian government to commit to a long-term vision on these pressing issues. The path ahead is a shift away from the old principles of selective welfare, which has been made obsolete by the current economic realities.

The signatories

Abatemarco Antonio University of Salerno
Addabbo Tindara University of Modena
Baldini Massimo University of Modena
Berton Fabio University of Torino
Bettio Francesca University of Siena
Boero Gianna University of Warwick
Cappellari Lorenzo University of Milano
Carpinelli Giovanni Fondazione Gramsci, Torino
Chiappero Enrica University of Pavia
Colombino Ugo University of Torino
Contini Bruno University of Torino
D’Amato Marcello University of Salerno
Dardanoni Valentino University of Palermo
Decoster André University of Leuven
Del Boca Daniela University of Torino
Destefanis Sergio University of Salerno
Di Tommaso Maria Laura University of Torino
Figari Francesco University of Varese
Fitzroy Felix University of St. Andrews, UK
Francesconi Marco University of Essex
Hartog Joop University of Amsterdam
Jantti Markus University of Stoccolma
Labeaga José University of Madrid
Laterza Vito University of Oslo
Lucifora Claudio University of Milano
Marchionatti Roberto University of Torino
Matsaganis Manos University of Atene
Musté Marcello University of Roma
Nese Annamaria University of Salerno
Ottoz Elisabetta University of Torino
Pacelli Lia University of Torino
Palea Vera University of Torino
Pasqua Silvia University of Torino
Peichl Andreas University of Mannheim
Peragine Vito University of Bari
Perali Federico University of Verona
Perazzoli Giovanni Roma
Piccoli Luca Università delle Isole Baleari
Privileggi Fabio University of Torino
Ramos Xavier University of Barcelona
Ravagli Letizia University of IRPET Firenze
Razzolini Tiziano University of Siena
Rettore Enrico University of Trento
Santillo Marco University of Salerno
Sau Lino University of Torino
Scacciavillani Fabio Oman Investment Fund
Somaini Francesco University of Lecce
Spadaro Amedeo Università delle Isole Baleari
Stancanelli Elena University of Parigi
Steiner Viktor University of Berlino
Strom Steinar University of Torino e Oslo
Trannoy Alain University of Aix-Marseille
Trivellato Ugo University of Padova
Tsakloglou Panos University of Atene
Tuomala Matti University of Tampere
van Parijs Philippe University of Louvain
Visentin Mauro University of Sassari
Widerquist Karl Georgetown University, Qatar
Devicienti Francesco University of Torino

 

On why basic income has not yet been deployed

Informal settlement in Soweto. Credit to: The Conversation

Informal settlement in Soweto. Credit to: The Conversation

The hypothesis: basic income has not been deployed in South Africa in part because the powers that be do not let go of their interest and ability to explore people.

 

The following article attempts to demonstrate the validity of this hypothesis.

 

Let’s begin with some background. Basic Income (BI) is not a new idea in South Africa. In fact a thorough economic analysis for BI implementation has existed since 2004. The analysis was  drawn from the work of recognized economists, specialists in the field, and the findings were summarized in what became known as the Taylor Committee. The Basic Income Coalition (composed of Black Sash, COSATU and SAAC), used these results to prove that BI is feasible, or at least should be tested, in South Africa.

 

More than 10 years have passed, and yet nothing resembling BI has been implemented or even tested in South Africa. Why not?

 

It is not due to lack of need: 54%1 of South Africans – over 29 million people – live under the country’s poverty line, and over 40% of the labor force is unemployed2. Moreover, according to the  BIG Financing Reference Group report, it is also not due to a lack of funds:

 

“The Basic Income Grant is an affordable option for South Africa. Although the four economists [Economic Policy Research Institute (EPRI), Prof. Pieter le Roux, Prof. Charles Meth and Dr. Ingrid Woolard] posit slightly different net costs for the BIG, representing transfers to the poor of different amounts, there was consensus that the grant is affordable without necessitating increased deficit spending be government.”

 

In spite of this, the same report also states that government officials believe that BI cannot combat poverty. They have refused to consider a BI, despite knowing that current social assistance plans fail to reach over 50% of those living under the poverty line, or nearly 15 million people. These officials have continued to say that BI would not be effective despite demonstration by the Taylor Committee that basic income is the best way to diminish or even eradicate poverty in the shortest amount of time. They also ignore fiscal collection and social security savings when speaking of BI, which more than doubles its actual net cost of about 24 million ZAR/year (1.35 billion €/year), according to the calculations of the Taylor Committee. In short, most government officials completely ignore these very consistent and thought-out analyses from the Taylor Committee. Why is that?

 

Well, the answer may lie in the kind of structure of South African economy. The private sector accounts for around 80% of the country’s economy3.  The median income is 3036 ZAR/month (171 €/month)4, which is low compared to European standards. Taking the United Kingdom as reference, the following table can be set up (Table 1).

 

Table 1 – Income relationships, South Africa / UK

Sem Título

 

The relationship between the median income and the average living income is considerably higher in the UK than it is in South Africa. Moreover, the ratio of median income to statutory minimum income is also much higher in the UK. Indeed, while the median income in the UK is above the minimum income (as it should be), this is not the case in South Africa: more than half of South Africans have wages below the statutory minimum income. Finally, as we can see on the graph below, the spread of incomes in South Africa is clearly skewed to the lower end on the income axis, while incomes in the UK are much more evenly distributed around the center (Figure 1 and Figure 2).

 

Figure 1 – Income spread in South Africa4

The spread of households within the income distribution in South Africa, 2008

Figure 2 – Income spread in the UK5

Income distribution for the total population (after housing costs)_UK_peq

These data show that the South African economy is impoverished compared to a country like the UK, and that most economic activity depends on a low-wage, low-skilled work force6. This situation is best maintained when a large number of poor, dependent people are craving for jobs in the economy. Given their subservient position, these millions of people will naturally accept low wages and substandard working conditions that they might not otherwise accept. They are also kept away from most schooling and higher education, which could provide them with extra skills and allow them to apply to other jobs or start their own businesses. This is convenient for large corporations, and these corporations lobby and finance politicians and governments to protect their interests by providing them with access to cheap labor and lax environmental laws. The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) deals, for example, are just a formally imposed recognition of the attitudes of domination that large corporations foist upon governments and the people at large.

 

There is a link between corporate interests and government policy. Furthermore, the implementation of a basic income would basically be contrary to corporate interests: BI would lift millions of people out of poverty, empower them to refuse conditions of exploitation and start their own business, invest in education and bettering their lives – depriving the corporations of their pool of cheap labor. Government policymakers may also respond out of ideology or prejudice, but corporate political sponsoring response must not be ruled out, given the entrenchment and longevity of their denial (relative to progressive policies like basic income).

 

 

More information at:

A. BIG Financing Reference Group, 2004. ““Breaking the poverty trap”: Financing a basic income grant in South Africa.” Basic Income Grant (BIG) Financing Reference Group conference, Johannesburg, 24 November 2003. March, 2004.

 

Notes:

 

1 – World Development Indicators – Poverty headcount ratio at national poverty lines (% of population), 2010

 

2 – A more accurate, expanded definition of unemployment, including the so-called ‘discouraged jobseekers’, according to reference A.

 

3 – World Development Indicators – General government final consumption expenditure (% of GDP) = 20.3. Hence Non-government (private) final consumption expenditure (% of GDP) = 79.7

 

4 – From the spread of households within the income distribution in South Africa, 2008.

 

5 – From Measuring National Well-being – Personal Finance, 2012 (UK)

 

6 – Higher skilled professionals are usually paid on or above the median income, so a low income distribution as shown in Figure 1 must be related with a high proportion of low skilled workers.

 

UNITED STATES: White House Economic Report Discusses Technological Automation

UNITED STATES: White House Economic Report Discusses Technological Automation

Released in late February, the White House’s Economic Report of the President discusses a number of topics related to the United States economy, including the global macroeconomic situation, the economic benefits of investing in U.S. infrastructure, and technology and innovation.  Within that last category, the report covers declining labor market dynamism and notes, “Both job creation and job destruction as a share of total employment have been in continuous decline since 1980 but that job creation has fallen faster in the last two decades.”  This is shown by Figure 5-4 from the report.

WH1

After introducing the fact that jobs are currently being destroyed faster than they are being created, the report continues to discuss robotics and the future of innovation.  According to the report, “Robots, like other types of automation can be either complements to, or substitutes for, conventional labor.”  And while many have argued that mass unemployment due to robotics and automation is decades away since history has shown that new jobs are created as old ones are destroyed, the report cites an Oxford University study by Frey and Osborne (2013) that argued that big data and machine learning will make it possible to automate many tasks that previously seemed impossible to automate.  As seen in Figure 5-15 from the report, a vast majority of jobs that pay less than $20 an hour are in danger of eventual automation, as are a significant number of jobs that pay $20-40 an hour.

WH2

 

On this topic, Scott Santens has written an article in response to the White House report in which he argues that such mass automation may be nearer than we thought.  Santens references a major development in artificial intelligence recently that many thought was a decade away but that has recently been achieved: A computer was able to defeat one of the world’s best players in a game called Go.  According to Santens, “Go is a board game so complex that it can be likened to playing 10 chess matches simultaneously on the same table.”

Santens believes that a basic income is the best way forward to ensure a minimum standard living for those who will lose their jobs to robots.  As technology continues to improve and the world is introduced to self-driving cars and other robots that will replace large swaths of jobs that are not merely routine and manual but also nonroutine and cognitive, Santens thinks society needs to be proactive in enacting a basic income to help decouple income from labor as labor demands from humans begins to shrink.