PORTUGAL: Basic Income Gets a Boost of Interest from the Media

PORTUGAL: Basic Income Gets a Boost of Interest from the Media

After the 17th BIEN Conference in Lisbon, Portugal had a boost of interest from the media on Basic Income. There were many articles in the mainstream media, TV, Radio and Newspapers and the debate is continuing.  

The main Portuguese public TV station, RTP 1, had a very interesting piece in the news, including interviews with Philippe Van Parijs and Scottish MP Ronnie Cowan:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7YHg92bkzgQ

Other TV pieces include a segment in the show, Tudo é Ecomonia (Economy is Everything):the section starts around minute 28 and is called Choque de Ideias, it is a debate between Ricardo Pais Mamede and Ricardo Arroja. Additionally, the Spanish News Agency Pressenza published an interview with Sara Bizarro, co-organizer of the Congress.

 

Examples of radio shows include an interview with Jurgen De Wispelaere on Antena 1, which aired on September 25, just as the congress was about to take off. De Wispelaere spoke about the experiment in Finland and how each country will propose its own version of Basic Income. On the 26th there was an interview with Jorge Pinto on Antena 1, and on the 28th and interview with Gonçalo Marcelo on Rádio Renascença (starts on minute 34). There was also a radio interview with Philippe van Parijs on TSF and another in Rádio Renascença.

 

The newspapers featured many articles and opinion pieces, including Amílcar Correia’s editorial, O pão, o tempo, trabalho e remuneração, in Público; Natália Faria, Da Finlândia à Escócia, os testes ao rendimento básico espalham-se pela Europa, in Público; Margarida David Cardoso, Rendimento básico entusiasma mais os académicos do que os políticos. Margarida David Cardoso also interviewed Evelyn Forget and mentions the idea of Cannabis legalization being used to help finance a Basic Income in E se a legalização da cannabis ajudasse a pagar um rendimento básico para todos? Entrevista a Evelyn Forget. The newspaper Correio da Manhã had a piece about Cascais PAN candidate, Francisco Guerreiro, by Débora Carvalho, Candidato a Cascais quer dar salário extra de 557 euros para todos. Other opinion pieces are Ricardo Arroja’s, RBI? A esquerda não deixará; Paulo Tavares, O RBI pode matar o Estado social; Diário de Notícias; Pedro Duarte, Ser social-democrata em 2017; Paulo Tavares, Como enfrentar as dores de crescimento da revolução 4.0; and Ricardo Sant’Ana Moreira, Rendimento Básico Incondicional: receber dinheiro por existir é uma boa ideia?. Diogo Queiroz de Andrade wrote about the Inequality Conference, Conferência sobre desigualdade; Philippe van Parijs was also interviewed by Filomena Naves in Rendimento universal seria muito mais justo and by Pedro Esteves in Quem limpa casas de banho pode vir a ganhar mais do que um professor; finally, Pedro Ramajal was interviewed by Isabel Guerreiro in O Rendimento Básico Incondicional (RBI) começa a ser levado a sério em Portugal.

 

To follow the media events regarding Basic Income in Portugal, please go to the Rendimento Básico Portugal website, Media section.

 

United States: CQ releases basic income research compilation

United States: CQ releases basic income research compilation

Congressional Quarterly (CQ) has published a research paper on basic income (BI) that explains its universal popularity due to automation growth estimates worldwide. The CQ Researcher covers everything from Scott Santens’ crowdfunded self-financing mechanism to U.S. ex-President Obama’s belief that the debate may last 10 to 20 years.

 

The 21-page research paper, written by London freelancer Sara Glazer, includes an explanation of the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD) – a basic income like payment to all residents – and revels in the prediction of automation worldwide. Predicted percentage of job losses are shown in charts for 8 countries, as well as for the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) (made up of 21 countries).

 

BI appeal to the political Left is explained as the continuation of a welfare state. Its appeal to the political Right is explained as a libertarian limit on government intrusion and cost. However, the research warns that many people believe the poor may be worse off: “Some anti-poverty advocates say a UBI would increase both poverty and inequality by using welfare funds now spent on the poorest two-fifths of the population to provide cash to people of all income levels“.

 

The report also mentions the current endorsement of Facebook co-founder Mark Zuckerberg, as well as other Silicon Valley entrepreneurs like Chris Hughes. Moreover, references are made to the 1960s precedent of U.S. President Lyndon Johnson’s instituted War on Poverty as well as U.S. President Richard Nixon un-instituted 1970s negative income tax credit. This latter issue has been today resurrected by Congressman Ro Khanna, by his proposed bill for extending the earned income tax credit for the poor.

 

The Canadian 1970s experiment, called Mincome, is described as a positive pilot project, acting as a precedent for current basic income pilot projects in Finland, the U.S. (California ), Canada (Ontario ), Spain (Barcelona), Africa (Give Directly) and the Netherlands. In this report Karl Widerquist says that, with a BI, people will be allowed without fear to work the way they feel best. In an opposite viewpoint, Pavlina Tcherneva argues that a Job Guarantee program would be a better, less costly, way to make sure everyone had work they cared for.

 

More information at:

David Wheeler, “What if everybody didn’t have to work to get paid?”, The Atlantic, May 18th 2015

Chris Weller, “President Obama: We’ll be debating unconditional free money over the next 10 or 20 years” Business Insider, October 12th 2016

Kate McFarland, “SPAIN: Barcelona prepares study of Guaranteed Minimum Income”, Basic Income News, February 26th 2017

Peter Vandevanter, “United States: Ro Khanna introduces EITC bill, garners comparison to BI”, Basic Income News, October 2nd 2017

Kate McFarland , “THE NETHERLANDS: Government authorizes social assistance experiments in first five municipalities”, Basic Income News, July 11th 2017

Ashley Blackwell, “KENYA: GiveDirectly’s Guaranteed Monthly Income Expands to 200 Villages Fall 2017”, Basic Income News, September 10th 2017

Kate McFarland, “FINLAND: First Basic Income payments sent to experiment participants”, Basic Income News, January 12th 2017

Peter Vandevanter, “United States: Ro Khanna introduces EITC bill, garners comparison to BI”, Basic Income News, October 2nd 2017

Ashley Blackwell, “KENYA: GiveDirectly’s Guaranteed Monthly Income Expands to 200 Villages Fall 2017”, Basic Income News, September 10th 2017

Kate McFarland, “FINLAND: First Basic Income payments sent to experiment participants”, Basic Income News, January 12th 2017

 

Is Basic Income the next big population health intervention?

Is Basic Income the next big population health intervention?

Why it’s useful to see Basic Income through the lens of Population Health Intervention Research

Thanks in part to the health sciences, there is widespread public acceptance that being poor is bad for your health. It doesn’t take much for us to make the connections. We might expect that less to eat and poor housing conditions interfere with our ability to maintain healthy bodies and immune systems. Less money could mean no access to things like computers so that people can visit sites like Thenutritioninsider.com
to get advice on how to eat healthy and look after their bodies. It may also mean less access to the health services that could treat or prevent illness and disease.

We need to make treatments more accessible which is why using coupons from somewhere like Save On Cannabis for CBD products might enable the vast health inequality to become smaller in the future. Moreover, fewer resources might mean fewer opportunities and fewer job options. Poverty also compounds political and social injustice, with marginalized people such as women, Indigenous people and racialized groups profoundly affected by poverty. These groups often constitute much of the poor. Lastly, evidence suggest we suffer the psychological consequences of living in material deprivation, both in absolute terms and relative to others. Therefore it is a necessity for marketing cbd brands to change the narrative around cbd products so that there’s a change in the structure and more people get accessible medical care.

The immense research on poverty, income inequality, and the social determinants of health culminated in public sympathy for the plight of the poor. Yet for all the studies that have been done on poverty, perhaps it is time to develop research and public support for a solution – such as Basic Income. There are practical challenges to getting basic income into common public health parlance. The health of everyone is highly important, no matter the level of wealth, every person should have access to healthcare, for example, men may need sexual health medications (), which means that they must be able to have that access when required by their doctor.

The answer may lie in the understanding of Basic Income as an ideological proposal that can affect our health. The discourse around basic income as a deeply ethical idea is necessary, but perhaps insufficient. I believe we should consider reframing the concept concretely as a population health intervention.

Why call basic income a “population health intervention”?

A concept advanced by Canadian researchers Potvin and Hawe (2012) as being policies or programs that shift the distribution of health risk by addressing the underlying social, economic and environmental conditions, population health intervention research is a unique approach to figuring out how we are affected by policies that have a wholesale effect on people. Eminent basic income economist Dr. Evelyn Forget took this approach in her paper “New questions, new data, old interventions: The health effects of a guaranteed annual income” (Forget 2013). She used old administrative data from the well-known “Mincome” experiment in Manitoba, and looked at health records from the same time-period. She saw a reduction in hospital burden relative to a similar town’s health care use that did not get the income grant.

Calling basic income an intervention means that we can treat it as a ‘natural experiment‘.

We can study the impact of a policy on our health and well-being without necessarily running a Randomized Controlled Trial (where you randomly assign some people to a treatment, policy, or program, and not others).

Many have proposed that we need to conduct this sort of formal scientific experiment first. Some have questioned how useful such limited studies would be. A Randomized Controlled Trial might tell us whether basic income works in a certain social, economic, and political setting, but tells us little about whether the policy would work in other settings, or why the policy had a particular effect.

We ought to be careful not to set ourselves up to fail with studies too narrowly drawn in scope. Mixed or unexpected results from such studies also risks misinterpretation, and can be used to prevent basic income from entering policy.

Although the Ontario Pilot Program represents a step in the right direction, nothing stops us from advocating for the full national implementation of basic income. A host of different research and study designs would be embedded into the impact evaluation of this federal policy, on par with health care or public education. Framing a given policy as a population health intervention acknowledges the fact that many there are health-promoting aspects to programs outside of health care sector (Hawe and Potvin 2009).

Basic income is such a policy. Programs to alleviate poverty lie outside the doctor’s office, but nevertheless have a profound impact on health.

Population Health Intervention Research compels us to think bigger than ourselves.

Traditional medicine treats the individual person. If we are looking at the effect of social programs and policies, this unit of analysis is often too small to see measurable differences in any single person. Moreover, if we restrict a given treatment or social program to the poorest people – such as welfare, we may see limited overall benefits to the population as a whole.

Epidemiologist Geoffrey Rose recognized this problem (Rose 1985). Imagine that people lie on a continuum of ‘risk’ for certain diseases and health outcomes. For example, this could be said of high blood pressure as a risk factor for heart attack. Higher blood pressure puts you at higher risk of heart attack.

For our purposes, let’s say this distribution represents the relationship between poverty and getting sick. Higher poverty puts you at higher risk of ‘sickness’. We might expect that most people lie somewhere in the middle of the distribution, while those at very high or very low poverty sit somewhere at the tails.

Rose noted that traditional medicine’s approach was to target high risk people at the far right. However, these people are a smaller proportion, and paying attention only to them might not give us the biggest bang for our buck. Instead, he posited that interventions that reach entire groups of people would ‘shift’ the distribution itself. At the end of the day, he estimated that these far-reaching treatments would have a bigger impact overall (Rose 1985).

Basic income fits that profile – a social policy that brings everyone up, effectively ‘shifting’ the distribution. In order to examine policies that lend a helping hand to everyone, we need a scientific lens that is broad enough to capture the whole picture. Reframing basic income as a population shifter might fill that void.

Lastly, population health interventions allow us to redirect our thinking from the problem to the solution.

We keep studying poverty, not the fixes for poverty. A population health intervention approach calls for the health sciences to consider the potential gains to be made by studying the impact of income interventions on population health. We should be turning our attention from studying how poverty effects our health, to studying how fixing poverty effects our health.

You might be quick to point out that we have not eradicated poverty yet. So, how do we study this state of affairs, when it doesn’t yet exist?

In some ways, we can. We have the pilot run in Dauphin, Manitoba that in many ways, was ahead of its time. Dr. Forget was the first to recognize the strength of “intervention-alizing” the Canadian basic income experiment. We can also examine policies that get close to basic income, such as the Bolsa Família program of Brazil – a conditional cash transfer available to families with children. In Canada, the non-conditional income grant for senior citizens called the Old Age Supplement has been analyzed as an analog to basic income (McIntyre, Kwok et al. 2016) and indeed, those researchers found that participants eligible for OAS reported better self-reported physical, mental, and function health. Importantly, they also found those on OAS (which is non-conditional) where better off than those on conditional income programs. These are innovative approaches to the question of basic income’s potential impact, using information we already have. And, it might move us from studies of poverty, toward studies of basic income.

As it stands, promoting basic income as a population health intervention for the sake of our health is underutilized, yet it seems like a sensible way to communicate the idea. Poverty is intricately tied to the material conditions of our lives and societal position in the world, predicated on sex, race, and class. How a policy like basic income works among these conditions deserves no less than comprehensive and holistic look at how our health is profoundly impacted. Research that is based on an understanding of population health intervention attempts to do just this – and capture the value and differential effect of these interventions, the processes by which they bring about change and the contexts within which they work best (Hawe and Potvin 2009).

The Dauphin Experiment and the impending Ontario Pilot have and will continue to shape our thinking moving forward. They are also a testament to the desire of Canadians for a better, kinder, healthier society for all. However, we have not yet fully transformed the public’s conception of poverty alleviation as a necessary policy, worthy of widespread implementation as are universal health care, public education, or social assistance.

Implementing a basic income as an essential social program and for our health is possible, and fully within our experience of policy-making at both the provincial and national levels. The time has come to make this a reality.

Sarah M Mah is a PhD student in the department of Geography at McGill University. She is also a member of the Asian Women for Equality Society, an organization dedicated to the campaign for a Guaranteed Livable Income.

The opinions expressed above are not necessarily those of BIEN or BI News.

References

Forget, E. L. (2013). “New questions, new data, old interventions: the health effects of a guaranteed annual income.” Prev Med 57(6): 925-928.

Hawe, P. and L. Potvin (2009). “What is population health intervention research?” Can J Public Health 100(1): Suppl I8-14.

McIntyre, L., C. Kwok, J. C. Emery and D. J. Dutton (2016). “Impact of a guaranteed annual income program on Canadian seniors’ physical, mental and functional health.” Can J Public Health 107(2): e176-182.

Rose, G. (1985). “Sick individuals and sick populations.” Int J Epidemiol 14(1): 32-38.

AUSTRALIA: Labor MP rejects UBI as solution to technological unemployment in new book

AUSTRALIA: Labor MP rejects UBI as solution to technological unemployment in new book

Jim Chalmers. Credit to: Financial Review.

 

Jim Chalmers, a Labor Party MP in Australia, claims that basic income, a concept gaining traction in Australia, is a “backward step”. His concerns focus on perceived increases in inequality and affordability issues. Chalmers and Mike Quigley, former chief executive of NBN Co, have laid out these views in their latest book, “Changing Jobs: The Fair Go in the New Machine Age”, released on the 25th September 2017.

 

According to Chalmers and Quigley, the way forward is to aim for full employment, in the face of technological change. This generally aligns with previous claims by Labor Party shadow treasurer Chris Bowen. They also agree that introducing basic income will also equate to slashing on the welfare state. As for unemployment, Chalmers is blunt: “feared widespread loss of jobs in the coming age of automation will not be fixed by giving everyone a basic income”. He also views basic income as basically unfair, since it would amount to giving the same support to a millionaire and to “a single mom struggling to keep food on the table”. That, however, is given out of tax context, since basic income proposals usually revolve around redistribution of tax money from the relatively richer people towards relatively poorer ones. Within this context, a millionaire will naturally be a net contributor to the basic income scheme.

 

However critical of basic income, Chalmers and Quigley present their own views of what can work for humanity in the near future, of which the Australian people are a close example. They think it is possible to use Big Data to predict “social problems at the household level before they emerge”. This, of course, comes along with high surveillance over people’s “work patterns, hours and wages”. With that and new ideas such as “income smoothing”, which will arguably complement low-paid workers incomes, or smooth their transition from better paid jobs to less paid ones (admitting that well paid jobs will definitely diminish, on average, in the foreseeable future). They also refer to reinforced unemployment benefits, financed by extra taxes on the general public and/or large corporations. To tackle future unemployment, Chalmers and Quigley recommend compulsory education on programming and robotics, while strengthening existing curricula with computational disciplines in order to elevate technological skills in everyone.

 

More information at:

Roberta Stewart, “AUSTRALIA: Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen (Labor Party) Urges Party NOT to Support Universal Basic Income”, Basic Income News, 16th July 2017

Gareth Hutchens, “Labor MP ridicules universal basic income push and says it would worsen inequality”, The Guardian, 24th September 2017

Daniel Raventós, “Basic Income – The material conditions of freedom”, Pluto Press 2007

UNITED STATES: Y Combinator releases proposal for expanded study of basic income

UNITED STATES: Y Combinator releases proposal for expanded study of basic income

Silicon Valley’s Y Combinator has concluded its pilot in Oakland and released a draft proposal for a large-scale randomized control trial of basic income in the United States.

In January 2016, Silicon Valley entrepreneur Sam Altman announced his intention to spearhead a privately funded trial of unconditional basic income in the United States, hiring social work and political science PhD Elizabeth Rhodes as Research Director later in the year, and eventually assembling a team of expert advisors.

Since this time, Y Combinator has conducted a feasibility study in Oakland, California, and is now working to finalize the design of its full scale experiment. (Contrary to some misconceptions, the Oakland project was not itself an experiment. Its purpose was merely to test and fine-tune the mechanisms for conducting the experiment–such as the selection of participants, disbursement of funds, and collection of data–not to analyze the effects of unconditional cash transfers on recipients. The latter will be the goal of the project described in the new research proposal, which has yet to be launched.)  

Although some details of the experiment remain to be decided, including the precise outcome variables and methods of data collection, Y Combinator has decided to design the experiment as a randomized controlled trial, conducted on a random sample of poor and low-income young adults from two US states (using a stratified sample to ensure adequate representation across race, gender, and income categories).

On the tentative design, the researchers will select a total of 3000 participants, randomly assigning 1000 to the treatment group–who will receive a regular cash payment of 1000 USD per month unconditionally for the duration of the experiment–and the remaining 2000 to the control group. (Individuals in the control group will provide the same type of feedback and data to researchers but receive only a much smaller cash payment, tentatively set at 50 USD per month.) The experiment is planned to continue for three to five years.

Y Combinator expresses an interest in a “holistic approach to understanding the individual-level effects of basic income”, in contrast to past and present experiments which have focused on the labor market impacts of unconditional cash payments, such as Finland’s current basic income experiment and the negative income tax experiments conducted in the United States in the 1970s. Among these individual-level effects, the research group is particularly interested in time use, mental and physical health, subjective well-being, financial health, decision making and attitudes toward risk, as well as  political and social attitudes. Furthermore, although individual-level effects will be the focus of the experiment, researchers also hope to examine spillover effects on recipients’ families, friends, and communities.  

While the research group has not finalized its choice of data sources and collection methods (see its project proposal for a discussion of possibilities currently under discussion), it plans to combine quantitative analysis with regular surveys and interviews (in contrast, for example, to the Finnish experiment, in which researchers have abjured the use of surveys and interviews during the duration of the experiment). Rhodes has explained, however, that participation in surveys and interviews will be voluntary for participants; that is, the payments will continue for the duration of the experiments even if recipients do not respond to requests for data and information.   

The research team acknowledges that the experiment does not, strictly speaking, test a universal basic income. For one, as mentioned, the sample will be limited to young adults (aged 21 to 40) with incomes below the area median. The researchers justify this limitation, however, by noting that “the marginal effect of the additional income on many of the outcomes is expected to be relatively small at higher income levels” and that, under most plans, “the benefit received by higher-income individuals would be paid back in taxes in order to fund the program”.

Additionally, due to the use of a randomized controlled trial, the research will not capture multiplier effects that might result from the implementation of a universal basic income (in contrast, for example, to the saturation study in Dauphin, Manitoba, or GiveDirectly’s recently launched village-level RCT of basic income in Kenya). However, researchers note that “ the intervention is very expensive and our sample size is constrained by the budget. We will not have enough statistical power to detect effects with a geographically saturated study and the increase in sample size required to allow for clustering is financially infeasible.”

To conduct the experiment, Y Combinator has partnered with the Center on Poverty and Inequality (CPI) at Stanford University. The research has been approved by Stanford’s Institutional Review Board for research involving human subjects.

Y Combinator is currently working with state and local governments to coordinate mechanisms for distributing payments without affecting recipients’ future eligibility for existing government benefits, and to obtain the use of registries to collect individual data.

With many details still to be settled, no specific launch date has been set for the experiment (although Rhodes stated at the recent BIEN Congress that the research group hopes to begin the study in “early 2018”), and the states from which subjects will be sampled have not been publicly announced.   

The full research proposal can be read on Y Combinator’s blog (see “Basic Income Research Proposal,” published September 20, 2017).

The organization invites comments and feedback on its project proposal.


Reviewed by Dawn Howard

Photo (Martin Luther King Jr. Regional Shoreline, Oakland) CC BY-NC-ND 2.0 MagicMediaProduction