Basic income, the whole world talks about it. Experiences, proposals and experiments this is the title of a new book by Sandro Gobetti and Luca Santini, with a preface by Andrea Fumagalli, published by GoWare Edizioni (March 2018).
Description
At the dawn of a new great transformation with the advent of the technological revolution, robotics and artificial intelligence, and in the age of major crises (economic, financial, political and ecologic), comes the echo of a proposal that opens unpublished scenarios: a basic income for all. In the era of the capitalism as a unique economic model, the idea of a guaranteed income rises up as one of the main human rights.
From experiences of minimum income inEuropean countries to the experimentation of an unconditional basic income around the planet, the right to a guaranteed income becomes key to fully enter, with confidence, in the third millennium. A book of agile and quick reading, written by two major Italian experts, helps to understand where we are and what we can expect.
Summary
Preface by Andrea Fumagalli
Introduction
Guaranteed minimum income and basic income
universal
Protection against social risks and minimum income: from welfare state to guarantee income
Unemployment insurance and minimum income in Europe
Systems and models of protection in European countries
What this means in practice: some examples
The universal and unconditional basic income
People talk about it everywhere. The state of the art of experimentation in the world
Africa at the forefront
What happens in Latin America
Back in the “first world”: North America
Asia, a crossroads of experimentation
The old continent that wants to reinvent itself
The debate and the proposals in Italy
Without income, without a network
A categorial and fragmented welfare
Moving situation
Essential principles for a possible proposal
Relations with unemployment benefits
Beneficiaries’ platform
The question of accessibility
Basic Income amount
Connection with the service system
Individuality
Basic Income duration
The principle of congruence
To find out more: bibliographic references for topics
European models of guaranteed minimum income
Social and labor transformations and basic income
The fourth industrial revolution, artificial intelligence, robotics and basic income
Authors
Sandro Gobetti, independent researcher and author of articles with a particular enphasis on guaranteed income. He collaborated on the 4/2009 law definition about minimum guaranteed income in the Lazio Region, and the national proposal law for guaranteed income. He is a founding member and coordinator of the Basic Income Network-Italy.
Luca Santini, lawyer, expert on migration law and social security law and has signed several articles. Has collaborated on the proposed law for guaranteed minimum income in Italy. He is the president and founder of the Basic Income Network-Italy.
In a new paper, published by the Institute of Labour Economics (IZA) in December 2017, James Browne of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and Herwig Immervoll, of both the IZA and the OECD, have discussed what the social and economic consequences might be when replacing some existing social benefits with a comprehensive basic income. The study contributes to the expanding literature (building on the work of Atkinson 1995) that uses the microsimulation technique, a method that builds a computer program based on economic inputs (such as costs, income, expenditure and savings) in order to see what the effect of one variable output (such as poverty or inequality) would be if an input was changed. It was most recently developed by EUROMOD (the only multi-country EU-wide tax-benefit model currently available), and was used in Malcolm Torry’s paper, published in May 2017 by the Institute for Social and Economic Research, which analyzed similar scenarios and outcomes to Browne and Immervoll’s. This article will compare the two papers in an attempt to better understand the growing work in this area.
The Browne-Immervoll paper focused on four countries across Europe that have different population and labour-market structures, as well as very different tax and transfer policies: Finland, France, Italy and the United Kingdom. It looked at a situation where a universal basic income (UBI) would directly replace other working-age cash-payment benefits, including unemployment benefits, social assistance and other generalised minimum-income schemes, in-work benefits, early retirement pensions (i.e. pensions paid to those below retirement age whatever their official label), student maintenance grants and family benefits. In order to ensure that hardship was not ‘built into’ the policy changes, disability allowances and housing benefits would be retained, as well as the funding of other public services, such as the provision of healthcare and education. In line with BIEN’s definition of the UBI, payments would be, in all other ways, universal, paid to the individual, provided at regular intervals in cash, and be unconditional. The funding for the reform would have to take place under budget-neutrality, which would be achieved by taxing the basic income provided and by removing any tax-free allowance from the fiscal model. The marginal rates of tax, thereafter, would remain in accordance to the rates in place prior.
Torry’s paper, dealing specifically with the UK economy, also deemed it permissible to remove tax-free allowances and to tax all earned income in order to contribute toward the funding of the reform whilst maintaining budget-neutrality. Being guided by Hirsch’s recommendations (2015) based on political feasibility, however, Torry allowed for increased Income Tax rates of up to 3 percentage points across the board to help with this funding. Additionally, and significantly, his model maintained – where necessary – the means-tested benefits entirely removed in the Browne-Immervoll version, such that if the introduction of the UBI (which he, alongside others, label a ‘Citizen’s Basic Income’) wouldn’t be sufficient in improving the economic situation of an individual, then the means-tested benefits in place prior to the reform would be available as a form of supplementary benefit.
Given the conservative (or non-existent) fiscal expansion allowed across the modelling, which in both cases is argued as being necessary for realistic simulation, the rate of the net BI payments to be provided was significantly below the poverty line in all cases. In the Browne-Immervoll model, the UBI, for adults, would be at just 21% of poverty line level (defined as 50% of median household income) in Italy (€158), at 32% in the UK (£230), at 49% in Finland (€527), and at 50% in France (€456). The tapering of income at this level (or lower for 16 to 18 year olds) had the inevitable result of an increased rate of poverty in each scenario. This effect was especially pronounced in the UK, rising from 10% to 15%, due to the fact that the UK’s pre-UBI system relied heavily on means-testing and would have, in situations of such low income levels, provided additional benefits no longer available in the new model. Though Torry’s calculated UBI for the UK was only marginally higher for both adults (£264 per month) and young adults (£216 per month), the poverty rate under the conditions of his scheme followed the opposite trend and dropped substantially, falling from 14.84% to 11.8%. This difference – the effect of which is relatively even greater given the fact that Torry, in line with De Agostini, 2017, defined the poverty line as 60% of median household income – can largely be explained by the fact that Torry retained the very same means-tested benefits that Browne and Immervoll removed.
The analysis of potential gains and losses to income groups also reflected the difference in the methodologies used by the papers. The unwillingness in the Browne-Immervoll simulation to increase any current marginal rates of tax in order to collect revenue led to the expected result that those on lower incomes, overall, experienced larger relative losses. The very poorest – with little or no income – experienced gains, due to the universal and unconditional features of the new scheme, but the regressive nature of the flat uniform payments was not sufficiently offset by any progressive mechanisms, and thus the model delivered an overall regressive outcome. In contrast, Torry’s desire to avoid regressivity, and his willingness, therefore, to raise all the marginal tax rates, resulted in the top two highest earning deciles experiencing loses in disposable income of up to 5%, the third highest maintaining their level of disposable income, and the fourth decile down experiencing gains.
In order to understand the effect on work incentives of introducing a UBI, both papers focused on whether the reform would increase the effective tax rates on additional income, thus disincentivizing earning extra at the margins. Though this metric fell, on average, in both simulations – thus showing that there would be an increased (or, at least, not decreased) incentive to work – in the Browne-Immervoll model this was the consequence of removing the benefits associated with low-employment or unemployment, whereas in the Torry model this trend occurred in spite of keeping such benefits in place. As such, Torry’s simulation saw people getting wealthier – thus potentially moving up tax-brackets – but still managed to create a system where the financial rewards to work remained, or were even increased.
In conclusion, Browne and Immervoll determined that introducing a UBI in place of most other means-tested benefits would be costly and lead to negative social outcomes. Torry concluded, by contrast, that a UBI of similar level could be financially and politically feasible and would lead to many positive social outcomes. Given, however, that universal and uniform payments in an unequal society will, by definition, always increase regressivity if not offset by sufficiently progressive funding, the data gathered and logical conclusions derived are completely consistent with the papers’ respective methodologies. This comparative analysis shows that by adjusting a model’s predicated constraints, one can collect quantitative evidence to support different desired conclusions. On this basis, a UBI’s potential introduction does not seem to be determined by its feasibility (implementation, political likelihood, or positive economic outcome) but rather, by whether there can be consensus on what its purpose should be. That is, is UBI a mechanism for equalising wealth or a mechanism to simply provide everyone with something, no matter how small or large that payment may be?
Andrew Murphy Davis is a young producer of documentaries and network news, who has started The Millennial Project. This project has been developing since 2015 and aims at “activating a unique millennial voice in American politics”.
Andrew, as the main driver behind The Millennial Project, has recently taken an interest on basic income, and released a video about it. This video was accompanied by an article, which defends that the main reason universal basic income (UBI) is nowadays widely discussed and has spurred interest from several public figures, politicians and the wider public all around the world, is related to artificial intelligence. Although this view has been contested, for instance by prominent researchers and basic income activists like Guy Standing, it is a fact that basic income is now ever more present in today’s globalized social debate.
In this short four-minute video, basic income is presented in general terms and contextualized within a reality of growing automation and advances in technologies that “are threatening to put millions of Americans out of work”. This reality has brought fears to many policy makers, predicting skyrocketing unemployment figures, igniting interest for this “once defunct idea of guaranteeing everyone a modest cash income as a basic right”.
On December 6, 2017, Swedbank published a report on the Baltic Sea Region entitled “Heart-warming growth is a poor excuse to postpone reforms.” The report includes a chapter on Universal Basic Income, wherein the bank models the current economic feasibility of UBI in the Baltics.
Swedbank is a bank based in Stolkholm, Sweden. Its research arm publishes annual economic assessments of Baltic Sea region countries, which include Germany, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Russia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland. The December 2017 report and executive summary focus primarily on Swedbank’s four main markets: Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
The report highlights a time when global economic growth has helped Baltic Sea region countries reach cyclical economic peaks. However, it states that geopolitics, and populism in particular, remain risks to further growth.
Swedbank suggests that rising income inequality, combined with fears about unemployment driven by automation and globalization, contribute to populism and need to be combatted in order to ensure sustainable economic growth. The report proposes that populism can be circumvented by socioeconomic policy that ensures that growth is inclusive (i.e., where prosperity is distributed equitably across all of a country’s economic classes).
As such, Swedbank’s report argues that this period of prosperity in the Baltic Region has created an ideal context for reform and investment in long-term economic wellbeing. The report delivers an in-depth analysis of the economies of Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, commenting on GDP growth and the potential to create new socioeconomic policies. It also targets specific needs in each country, referencing indicators based partially on the UN’s sustainable development goals.
Sweden scores higher than the Baltics on most of Swedbank’s UN SDG-based indicators. However, the report comments on the need for all identified countries to take the opportunity to enact policy reform.
Swedbank addresses Universal Basic Income as one potential option for reform that will reduce income inequality and encourage sustainable growth. The report concludes that UBI is currently unaffordable for the Baltics, but that elements of a basic or guaranteed income, introduced carefully, could come with numerous social benefits.
Swedbank in Lithuania. Credit to: Delfi
UBI: Current feasibility for the Baltic Region
Swedbank identifies several arguments for UBI, including the idea that it will increase income security and thus reduce fears around unemployment and job loss, along with suggestion that UBI solves or mitigates problems with existing social security systems. The argument that UBI will minimize bureaucratic costs associated with social security systems is less relevant in the Baltics, where only 1.2 to 2.1% of total “social protection” expenditure is administrative.
The report provides a summary overview of some of the questions associated with UBI implementation, such as its impact on employment and the economy, or the concern that it would negatively impact assistance given to the disabled or elderly.
Using 2015 data on government spending on social protections in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, Swedbank evaluates the feasibility of a budget-neutral UBI in these countries. The report tries two different models, one in which old-age pensions are retained by the elderly, and the other in which pensions are included in the money redirected towards UBI. For each of these two scenarios, the report presents two further options: one wherein all residents of a country receive UBI, and another wherein children up to the age of 16 receive only 50% of adult UBI payments. Swedbank does not make any changes to tax revenue in these examples.
The report finds that, given existing budgets, UBI monthly payments to individuals would only reach 48-55% of the at-risk-of-poverty threshold for each Baltic country, less if old-age pensions were retained for the elderly. A UBI at the poverty line, distributed to all residents equally, would require doubling social security budgets in Latvia and Estonia, or an 82% increase in Lithuania, becoming 20-25% of each country’s GDP.
While Swedbank concludes that a UBI is currently unaffordable in the Baltics, the report comments that some components of a “basic income model” might simplify and improve existing social security programs. The authors suggest that governments could improve their systems’ accessibility by eliminating means testing and other conditions currently in place for those trying to get support. They also propose that a gradual decrease in benefits, rather than a sharp removal once a person becomes employed, might help incentivize recipients to stay in the labour market.
Another alternative discussed is a “partial” guaranteed income delivered only to particular cohorts of people. For example, Lithuania has an existing program that provides lump-sum cash benefits to every child born, with no conditions placed upon family income.
South Korea’s government included an expenditure to design potential models for a basic income experiment into the budget for 2018. It shows that government and politicians in South Korea have started to consider basic income as a significant and unavoidable policy.
Against this backdrop, BIKN held a conference under the title of “Why we need a basic income experiment: The necessity of BI and significance of a BI experiment” on Jan. 23, 2017, which was co-sponsored by the Democratization of Economy Forum of the National Assembly.
Four speakers came to propose potential basic income models for Korea and to make a critical evaluation of the experiments that have already been carried out or will soon begin in other countries or regions.
Professor Seo (Gunsan National University) said the existing social security system is based on an employment-contract relation, revealing the limitations of highlighting the qualitative change of work into “flexible” employment. We need to form new strategies to face the current situation and we constructed three possible options.
The first strategy is an expansion strategy that seeks to expand the legal nature of employees considering their actual conditions. The second is to shift the basis of social insurances from employment-based social insurances to income-based ones. Finally, we could consider the basic income strategy. Professor Seo said that the first strategy, a kind of legal approach, has two drawbacks which does not keep up with the actual changes in the economy and is subject to many blind spots. Although, such a strategy could be helpful in the short-term. The second strategy is limited because it is still based on labor-related income. So she maintained that the basic income strategy is the most effective in the “workless” future.
Professor Baek (Catholic University), stood upon the same understanding of the current situation as Professor Seo. Seo brought attention to the transition to a welfare state centered on basic income in his presentation, “Precarious Work and Basic Income for Young People.” In the first he suggested the ideal method of transition is comprised of eight stages: 1) rational adjustment of the existing social security system; 2) implementation of new categories of social assistance programs such as unemployment allowance; 3) strengthening social allowances for children, the elderly, and people with disabilities; 4) introduction of a social benefit for young people; 5) implementation of participation income; 6) expansion of the coverage of age groups in age-related categorical allowances; 7) introduction of a low-level basic income which integrates a few social allowances; 8) implementing a full basic income. For this, he maintained that the most useful and effective method is to introduce a basic income for young people first, after he highlighted the insecurity of young people in Korea (unstable employment, low wages and exclusion from social insurances).
Dr. Park (Chungnam Institute) proposed a Farmer’s Basic Income or Rural Residents’ BI in “Requirement of Farmer’s (Rural Residents) BI and Introduction Plan.” His starting point is that the income of farmer’s household has steadily decreased, and the existing subsidy has a serious drawback. In 2016, the average earning of a farmer’s household is 63.5 percent of an urban worker’s one, which has undermined the foundation of agriculture. And the subsidy is paid in proportion to the arable acreage, which causes disadvantages to petty farmers. In fact, the total size of the subsidy is too small. Dr. Park proposed the Farmer’s BI or Rural Residents’ BI to enhance the public value of agriculture and to secure the income of a farmer’s household.
Professor You (Australian National University) proposed the principles and direction that should be the basis of a BI experiment in Korea, while examining the basic income experiments or similar ones carried out across the world. He found that the experiments could be a foundation for discussing implementation of BI, even though they have limitations. He proposed that we need to make comprehensive and long-term design for a BI experiment to whatever extent possible. To produce such a design, two features would be required: close cooperation with government and a wide range of expert participation.
The South Korea government will post the program to design BI experiments to which BIKN will apply with other academics and experts. It will be an opportunity to spread the legitimation and necessity of BI widely, even if BI is not implemented in a short timeframe in Korea.
