by Stanislas Jourdan | Sep 23, 2015 | News
Despite the large amount of the annual dividend for 2015, the future of Alaska’s small basic income is under political threats as the state suffers from a large deficit gap.
Confirming earlier forecasts, the amount of Alaska’s citizens’ dividend paid this year will be the highest ever paid (without inflation) since the first payment made in 1982.
Yet, perspectives for what is the closest policy to a universal basic income in the world today are not so shining. Because the Alaskan government is currently trying to cope with an historical budget deficit, various suggestions have been made on how to reduce the state’s deficit, some involving changes in the dividend mechanism, to make it less generous.
The citizens’ dividend is administered by the Alaska Permanent Fund Corporation which was established in 1976 by constitutional amendment.
The fund collects at least 25 percent of all the state’s mineral royalties and lease payments and invests its accumulated reserves in financial markets. The financial earnings are then distributed equally among all Alaskans as a citizens’ dividend.
The amount of the dividend however is based on a five-year rolling average of the financial earnings of the fund, which therefore no longer includes the recession years post-crisis. For this reason, low oil prices have plunged Alaska into a crippling budget deficit, but it hasn’t yet affected the size of the payout.
Thus, more than 644,000 Alaskan residents registered or born before December 31st 2014 will receive their dividend checks beginning on October 1st.
Political Threats on the Future of the Dividend
Despite what seems to be good news, Alaska is now in a paradoxical situation where the earnings from the Permanent Fund have exceeded the earnings from Alaska oil. This paradox has recently provoked a wave of attacks against the dividend, including from Alaska’s current governor, Bill Walker (Republican).
For the ceremonial announcement of the amount of the annual dividend, Walker deliberately chose to let a 12-year-old girl named Shania make the public announcement in order to send a signal that, according to him, the future of Alaska’s children are endangered by the unsustainability of the Fund.
https://vimeo.com/139986120
“We are paying out more in PFD checks than we are for the education of young Alaskans like Shania—at a time when we are struggling with a $3.5 billion deficit,” the Governor stressed in a statement to the press. “Alaskans need to know this is unsustainable. I’m confident Alaskans will pull together to find a solution, as we always do when times are tough.”
“It is time to have an open and honest conversation about our finances, and how resources like the Permanent Fund can be used as an asset. The vision of the Permanent Fund was to turn a nonrenewable resource into a renewable one, and it is our job to determine how to best use and protect that gift for the benefit of all Alaskans.”
A message that was also stressed by Lt. Governor Mallott (D), and Eric Wohlforth, both former members of the Fund’s Board of Trustees, in advance of upcoming debates on how to reform the Fund.
“The original purpose of the Permanent Fund was to save wealth for future generations of Alaskans. This is the people’s fund. In the months before the legislative session, groups will meet to talk about how we should manage our wealth. I urge all Alaskans to become informed investors, for their sake and for the sake of the next generation.” Eric Wohlforth said, thus making the threats against the Fund more precise than ever.
by Karl Widerquist | Sep 1, 2015 | News, The Indepentarian
A recent poll asking Alaskans how to deal with the state’s increasingly severe budget deficit found that trimming the Permanent Fund Dividend or PFD (also know as “the Alaska Dividend”) was the most popular solution. The poll also found that a second strategy for trimming the dividend was third in popularity.
-Alaska Dispatch News
The Alaska dividend is the closest program to a basic income in the world today. Each year it pays out a dividend, usually between $1000 and $2000 per year, financed out of the returns from the Alaska Permanent Fund or APF—a savings portfolio of more than $50 billion accumulated from past state oil revenue. Its enormous popularity earned it the nickname of “the third rail of Alaskan politics,” meaning that any politician who touched it died.
This poll might be an indication that the dividend is losing that status in the face of Alaska’s financial situation, which is deteriorating because of the state’s dependence on oil revenues. The state has no sales or income tax. The vast majority of its revenue comes from taxes, fees, and royalties on the state’s oil exports. Not only have oil prices declined by more than 50 percent since 2014, but the amount of oil exported from Alaska has been declining significantly for years. The state is quickly running through the savings it built up in good years, and it is faced with the situation in which it must either make deep cuts in spending or seek new revenue.
Asking Alaskans to respond to several strategies of dealing with this issue, the Rasmuson Foundation found the following:
- 66% of Alaskans agreed with “Using a portion of excess earning from the Permanent Fund to fund public services and programs while protecting the dividend program.” 27% opposed.
- 57% agreed with “Introducing a statewide sales tax.” 41% opposed.
- 55% agreed with “Putting a cap on the yearly amount of Permanent Fund dividends.” 41% opposed.
- 54% agreed with “Reducing oil development tax credits offered by the state.” 32% opposed.
- 41% agreed with “Introducing a state personal income tax.” 55% opposed.
- 16% agreed with “Making deep funding cuts to essential public services like schools, police, health care, and roads.” 16% opposed.
The first option might not sound like a cut in the dividend, but it is. There are no “excess earnings” in the PDF. Every dollar the PDF receives in returns either goes to spending or to generating more returns and higher dividends in all the years to come. Any strategy that defines some returns as “excess” and diverts those to other spending, necessarily means lower dividends in the future. This opinion protects the existence of the dividend, but it does not protect its future growth or even its current level. If any significant amount is taken in “excess earnings,” it will slow the growth of the dividend in the future, and it might even create negative future growth in the dividend.
The poll did not ask people whether they would support eliminating the dividend entirely, but over time either of the two strategies suggested would lead to significantly smaller dividends than what would otherwise occur.
The poll also did not ask about spending the principal of the PFD, which is constitutionally protected. The legislature would need a constitutional amendment to spend down the $52 billion fund, but with a simple majority vote, it could cancel the dividend and use that money to finance state spending. Before the recent fiscal crisis, such a strategy was politically untenable, but the poll shows that movement in that direction might have become politically tenable.
The poll results suggest that Alaskans might view the dividend as a luxury to be distributed as long as the state is booming. If so, it is very different than how most basic income supporters view it: as an essential tool to promote social justice and an important way to show solidarity with economically disadvantaged individuals. Whether this or any other view of the dividend is strong enough to project it during Alaska’s fiscal crisis remains to be seen.
For more information see:
Alex DeMarban, “Poll: Alaskans prefer new revenue over deep cuts, including tapping Permanent Fund.” Alaska Dispatch News, August 13, 2015.
The Rasmuson Foundation, “Alaska Attitude Survey On The State Fiscal Climate.” The Rasmuson Foundation, Conducted July 13 – 21, 2015
Representative Wes Keller, “My Turn: Don’t be snookered, ther’es no ‘free ride.’” The Juneau Empire. August 20, 2015
Rep Les Gara, “My Turn: Open discussion needed on oil taxation.” The Juneau Empire. August 19, 2015.
NOTE: The paragraph beginning, “The first option might not sound like a cut…” was added after this article was first posted in response to questions from readers.
by Karl Widerquist | Aug 31, 2015 | News, The Indepentarian
Alaska Dispatch News has released its estimate of Alaska’s Permanent Fund Dividend (PDF) for this year. The Alaska Dividend is the closest policy to a basic income in the world today. It has paid dividends to all Alaska residents since 1982. According to reporter Sean Doogan, the dividend is likely to be about $2,100. If so, the dividend would be technically the largest in the state’s history. The next largest amount ever paid as “the Permanent Fund Dividend” was slightly smaller, $2,069, in 2008. In that year, however, the state added $1,200 to each check as a rebate from the state’s budget surplus, making the total amount each resident received $3,269, considerably higher than any likely amount this year.
The Alaska Dividend amounts 1982-2014
The amount is large this year because the investment fund on which it is based is doing well. The amount paid each year depends on how many Alaskans apply and on a five-year average of returns to the fund. The fund has been making strong returns in recent years. It has recently reached a total value of $52.8 billion. Although the fund was created out of out revenues and is supplemented by them each year, the value of the fund and dividend is not dependent on current oil revenues, which have been declining sharply from both lower prices and fewer exports.
Sean Doogan, “Our estimate of this year’s PFD check: $2,100.” Alaska Dispatch News, August 22, 2015
Catie Quinn, “Permanent Fund Adds 4.9%.” KSRM Radio Group, August 20, 2015.
APFC, “The Permanent Fund Dividend.” The Alaska Permanent Fund Corporation website.
Credit pciture: CC Teddy Llovet
by Karl Widerquist | Aug 6, 2015 | News, The Indepentarian
Alaska’s Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD)–the closest policy to Basic Income existing in the world today–could reach over $2000 this year, but it remains under threat as Alaskan politicians seek ways to close the budget deficit.
According to KTUU TV, Bill Popp, the head of the Anchorage Economic Development Corporation predicted that this year’s PFD will reach $2,000. The PFD varies each year because it is financed by an investment fund owned by the state. It is paid each year to every Alaskan U.S. citizen who fills out a form verifying their residency in the state. Last year the PDF was $1884. A payout of $2000 would be close to the record high dividend of $2,069.00 of 2008. It will still be far below 2008’s full payment, which included a $1200 supplement from the state’s budget surplus that year.
Alaska’s Dividend is so popular that recent editorials have suggested linking the PFD application to voter registration to encourage more people to vote. However, it is under attack because declining oil exports coupled with declining oil prices have created a large budget deficit. This budget pressure does not directly affect the PFD because it is financed by its own dedicated investment fund of more than $50 billion. However, politicians have increasingly been talking about redirect money from that fund to the regular state budget to help close the deficit. One recent editorial suggests capping the dividend at $1000 and using the rest of the money for the regular state budget.
For more information see:
Kortnie Horazdovsky, “2015 Permanent Fund Dividend could hit $2000, AEDC says,” KTUU-TV, Jul 29, 2015
Dermot Cole, “Linking voter registration to PFD would create fundamental change.” Alaska Dispatch News, August 2, 2015
Elise Patkotak, “How about this? If you don’t vote, you don’t get a PFD.” Alaska Dispatch News, July 28, 2015.Brian O’Connor, “Sustainable Alaska: Tax package likely necessary to plug $2.7b budget hole.” The Mat-Su Valley Frontiersman, August 1, 2015.
Picture credit CC Attribution-NonCommercial 2.0 Generic (CC BY-NC 2.0) Timothy Wildey
by Karl Widerquist | Jul 22, 2015 | News, Opinion, The Indepentarian
Alaska’s small Basic Income, “the Permanent Fund Dividend” (PFD), has recently come under greater political pressure than — perhaps — ever before.
The PFD is a yearly dividend paid out of an investment portfolio, “the Alaska Permanent Fund” (APF), which is financed by accumulated savings from the state’s oil revenue. The fund has a principal of more than $50 billion, and it paid out a dividend of $1884 to each Alaskan in 2014. The dividend is fully funded by the APF. On its own it is financially sound. Barring a major catastrophe, as long as politicians leave the APF alone, it can continue to fund the dividend long after we are all dead.
Politicians will leave the APF alone, or so most Alaskans thought until recently. The PFD has been so popular that it was known as the “third rail of Alaskan politics,” meaning that any politician who touched it died. But political realities might be changing.
Since 1980 the Alaska state budget has been funded almost entirely by oil revenue. Now with both declining oil prices and declining oil production, the state faces a large budget shortfall. Lawmakers eventually agreed to close the deficit without tapping into the APF and PFD by cutting spending and taping into another state savings fund, but several lawmakers, including the state’s governor, Bill Walker, proposed tapping into APF earnings. The phrase “third rail of Alaskan politics” barely made the conversation.
Cuts to the PFD could be coming in the next few years. Discussing the future of the budget, Governor Walker said, “At this point I don’t see a scenario that doesn’t involve some of the earnings from the permanent fund.”
