Scott Santens, “Universal Basic Income Will Likely Increase Social Cohesion”

Crowd of business people in huddle reaching for globe

It can be easy to get carried away in emotional ideological debates about the validity of Universal Basic Income as a new welfare model. However, Scott Santens argues that there is no need for it at all. He maintains that there is enough scientific evidence out there to demonstrate the benefits of UBI beyond a reasonable doubt. Using evidence from studies carried out in Namibia, India, Lebanon and Alaska, Santens argues that we should use this data to inform our future economic policies based on science instead of just using our emotions.

Scott Santens, “Universal Basic Income Will Likely Increase Social Cohesion” , Huffington Post, October 22nd 2015

Would a universal basic income be the ‘death’ of civil society?

The most common criticisms of a universal basic income (UBI) are that it is unfeasible and too expensive. However, in a recent series on UBI in the Washington Post, some of the strongest attacks dealt with the possibility that it may undermine civil society in the United States.

Jonathan Coppage, associate editor of The American Conservative magazine, argues that a UBI provides the freedom to “no longer be needed” by the marketplace, where many societal bonds are formed. A UBI would remove these ties, Coppage said.

In India, a UBI trial demonstrated instead that a UBI has the potential to increase entrepreneurial and economic activity. Also, unlike the current entitlement system, UBI benefits do not diminish as income rises, so replacing current social services with a UBI can actually encourage individuals to enter the marketplace.

A cautionary tale does emerge from rentier states in the Middle East. Rentier states, such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar, use oil revenue to provide their citizens with lavish social services in order to buy loyalty to the government. Some argue that this environment has contributed to the underdevelopment of rentier states’ civil societies, while others dispute this theory.

Nonetheless, the lessons from rentier states cannot properly be applied to implementing a UBI in the United States. There are far too many cultural and institutional differences (such as the repressive politics of many rentier states) to make these countries a useful case study.

In Alaska, the Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD) provides a more accurate illustration of how a UBI would affect civil society in America. The PFD provides an annual payment from the state’s oil revenues to each citizen of Alaska. It is arguably the closest program to a full UBI in the world.

One of the best measures of the strength of civil society is the level of volunteerism, as it indicates how invested individuals are in the betterment of their communities. Alaska is ranked as having the tenth highest volunteer participation as a percentage of the population in the United States. Additionally, from 1989 to 2006, Alaska’s volunteer rate increased by 10 percent.

Many have made the case that a UBI would increase support for civil society as it would allow individuals to shift some of their time to civic engagement. Although more in-depth statistical analysis would be needed to demonstrate that Alaska’s high volunteerism rate is a partial result of the PFD, it is easy to see why it may be the case; the financial freedom resulting from a UBI allows people to dedicate more time to activities that truly benefit them and their community.

At the very least, the experience in Alaska shows us that a universal basic income in the United States would not be the death of civil society. In fact, it could be the very stimulus civil society needs to thrive.

Short Answers to BIG FAQs (Part 3 of 3)

[The following is an excerpt from a book in progress, The Poverty Abolitionist’s Handbook.]

Q: Basic income seems like such a fringe idea. I do not want to waste my time on something that is not going to happen. Is a basic income politically feasible?

Image via FMDam.org.

Image via FMDam.org.

A: In the U.S. Presidential campaign of 1972, both incumbent Republican Richard Nixon and Democratic challenger George McGovern included versions of a basic income in their campaign platforms. In 1988, two men in Indiana sued for a license to marry each other, and the judge not only threw out the case, but also levied a fine of $2,800 on the men for wasting the court’s time with a frivolous lawsuit. The judge wrote that the plaintiffs’ “claims about Indiana law and constitutional rights are wacky and sanctionably so.”(1) Today, it may seem like basic income could never be taken seriously by mainstream politicians and it is hard to remember just how much of lunatic fringe idea same-sex marriage was one generation ago. But with all of human history against it, activists moved the zeitgeist in favor of same-sex marriage in just one generation. With hard work, poverty abolitionists should be able to advance public opinion back to where it was in 1972.
And we are making progress. In 2014, the idea of basic income received more media attention and support from political leaders around the world than at anytime in the past 30 years. And as the slowly growing crisis of technological unemployment demands attention from political leaders, basic income will be discussed more and more openly as the only practical solution.
Do I really believe there is a reasonable chance of a basic income being adopted in the United States in the next five years? Sadly, no. But with hard work, adoption in the United States in 20 years is certainty feasible. And even if it takes 50 years to abolish poverty, would not that be worth it?

(1)Arthur Leonard, Judge Denies Marriage License to Gay Male Prisoners, 1988 Lesbian/Gay L. Notes 63.

Q: Would children get the basic income?
A: Why not?
Actually, there are a lot of different opinions on this. Some say yes, some say no, some think children should get a smaller basic income, and some think children should get a full basic income but all or a portion of it should be held in trust until they are adults. Some jurisdictions actually provide small basic incomes, or nearly basic incomes to children even though they do not provide them to adults, through baby bonds and child tax credits. The most common reason given for saying that children should be denied the same basic income given to adults is that it will encourage poor people to have children who will be dependent on the state, but there is little support for this. Adults with a basic income will not be poor, and birth rates decline as incomes rise. For someone not already in poverty, it is unlikely the basic income will be large enough to make having a child a financially smart move. But whatever you believe about children and a basic income, remember that children are fully human, so any deviation from what adults receive needs to convincingly answer the question, “Why not?”

Q: Would people in NewYork City get the same basic income as people in Oakley, Kansas?
A: The truth is we do not know whether or not “top ups” would be needed in more expensive areas if there was a basic income. Currently, most people are forced to live in cities because that is where the jobs are, and rents are high in cities because the property owners can extort money from people who have to live there because they need to live near their work, and retail prices are high in cities because rents are high. What would population patterns be like if people could just move to rural areas and live off of a basic income if rents got too high? Would rents go down in cities if people were not forced to live where jobs are? We simply do know the answer to those questions. So it would be best to start with a basic income that is universal, unconditional, and uniform at the national level, and be willing to revisit the idea of top ups for more expensive areas when we know what life with a basic income is like. Meanwhile, local governments can offer smaller basic incomes to their residents financed from local taxes and resources to add to a national basic income. A national basic income should not force Alaska to stop paying dividends to its residents from its oil revenues nor American Indian tribes from paying its members dividends from casinos, for example, nor any other local government from offering refundable tax credits.

Q: Would visitors to the country, whether documented or not, be entitled to the basic income?
A: The short answer is “no”. I know of no well-sussed basic income proposal that contemplates sending payments to anyone beyond citizens and legal permanent residents (LPRs), and as a practical matter, it would seem unlikely that any proposal to make payments to anyone beyond LPRs would pass. Indeed, many basic income supporters prefer the terms “Citizen’s Income” or “Citizen’s Dividend”.
However, after a basic income is established for citizens and LPRs, it may be worthwhile to revisit whether other visitors can get a basic income as a separate societal decision. Unlike for children, the burden would be on those who want to extend benefits to visitors, and there are good reasons to extend the basic income beyond LPRs, and good reasons not to extend the basic income beyond LPRs.

Q: What are some good reasons to extend a basic income beyond legal permanent residents (LPRs)?
A: Some possibilities:
* Any humane society will provide at least some social benefits to the poor within their borders, however they got there, and cash payments might simply be more efficient.
* Poorer immigrants either spend their incomes or send a portion to poor relatives back home, so cash payments to them will either stimulate our economy or act as foreign assistance well targeted to the needy in nations with intimate ties to ours.
* Immigrant workers who do not receive a basic income are more easily exploited as cheap labor and would be unfair competition for citizens and LPRs who do receive a basic income.

Q: What are some good reasons not to extend the basic income beyond citizens and legal permanent residents (LPRs)?
A: Some possibilities:
* The basic income could be a magnet drawing an unsustainable number of immigrants. It would be easy to be overly skeptical of this concern, because anti-immigrant voices have been claiming for decades that immigrants come here for welfare benefits, and that is simply not true. Immigration tends to rise and fall with jobs, not availability of welfare benefits. However, the general utility of cash benefits may make them so qualitatively different from welfare benefits that people might start coming here just to receive them.
* Granting cash benefits to other poor visitors might interfere with the alternate humane policy of trying to extend LPR status to as many of them as possible, reducing both the pressure on other immigrants to become LPRs, and the pressure on politicians to extend LPR status to far greater numbers of people.
* Rather than extend the basic income beyond citizens and LPRs via unilateral legislation, we might choose to do so via reciprocal treaties, encouraging other nations to establish a basic income and/or leading the establishment of a global basic income.

Q: How can you possibly think it is moral for some people to live off of the work of others?
A: What I find immoral is *forcing* some people to work for the benefit of others. That is why I support a basic income guarantee. It was Vladimir Lenin in Bolshevik Russia who stated, “Those who don’t work don’t eat.” Whether that sentiment is expressed by Lenin or by Charles and David Koch in 21st century America, it is powerful members of society demanding that the government use its guns to enforce a Utopian ideology that benefits them personally on the masses that did not consent. If everyone had a basic income, then no one would be forced to work for others. With a basic income, producers would have to be induced to work voluntarily, either by appealing to their good nature or by offering them special benefits such as recognition or extra money.

Q: If everyone received a basic income, would not employers simply reduce salaries by the amount of the basic income, since their employees would need that much less money to live on?
A: Wage substitution from a basic income should only occurs at the lowest subsistence level wages. Because no one will work for less than they need to live, supply drops off at that point. Giving those people other regular income that is not sufficient to live off of reduces what they need to live from employers. This is why a minimum wage will still be necessary until we have a basic income that is higher than what people need to live. However, a wage substitution effect should not occur once there is a basic income above subsistence level, since recipients would be empowered to leave jobs where they did not believe they were being paid adequately.
There should be no wage substitution effect on skilled labor. Everyone making over subsistence level is getting paid based on the supply of and demand for their specific skills. There are plenty of people willing to do the work of a nurse for much less than nurses make, but they cannot because they do not have the skills. At subsistence level, the “supply” in the supply and demand labor curve is the supply of bodies. Above subsistence, the “supply” is the supply of skills. A UBI at less than subsistence level can allow bodies to supplied for less, but no basic income will directly change the supply of skills.

Q: Do we currently have any empirical evidence of what the effect of a basic income would be on wages at the macro level?
A: No. The Alaska Permanent Fund and the Earned Income Tax Credit do not appear to have affected wages either positively or negatively, while the Speenhamland System in England in the early 19th Century does appear to have generated a wage substitution effect. However, none of these cases is illustrative. The amount of Alaska Permanent Fund payments is too variable for employees to count on what they might receive, and it pays people in a state where the supply of even unskilled labor is consistently tight. The Earned Income Tax Credit is means tested, applies primarily to workers with children, and is too complicated for most of its recipients to understand for them to rely on it. The Speenhamland System was an extremely heavily means-tested income support program conditional on work. No basic income experiments have been conducted at a massive enough scale to see effects on labor markets.

SAN FRANCISCO, USA: Political and Technological Strategies towards a post-Scarcity Society

Tristan Roberts

Tristan Roberts, organizer

On Thursday, October 29, 2015, Tristan Roberts will host a discussion on strategies towards a post-Scarcity society. The group will explore the current and possible future implementations of Universal Basic Income, at the local, national, and international levels. According to the organizers, “We’ll also be discussing radical solutions that may supplant the current economic system. Technology, in the form of cryptocurrencies, is actively being designed to create transparent microstates. Besides offering transparent governance, some of these modular, voluntary communities will feature digital currencies that have progressive wealth redistribution at their core. In other words, a bitcoin-like, blockchain-based universal basic income.”

The discussion will take place at 7PM, in the NextSpace coworking office on the 2nd floor of 1 Hallidie Plaza, San Francisco, CA.

Topics include:

*The status of the Swiss referendum for a Universal Basic Income

*The Finnish and Dutch efforts towards experimenting with Basic Income on city-wide levels,

*Alaska’s Citizen Dividend and Oregon’s possible Carbon Dividend

*Bitnation’s attempt to create modular, transparent governance

*Next-generation, Ethereum-based cryptocurrencies that feature wealth redistribution

Details:

Political and Technological Strategies towards a post-Scarcity Society
Thursday, October 29, 2015
7:00 PM, NextSpace coworking office
1 Hallidie Plaza, 2nd floor, San Francisco, CA

More information: https://www.meetup.com/San-Francisco-Bay-Area-Basic-Income-Meetup/events/226127519/

Size of a Citizens’ Dividend from Carbon Fees, Implications for Growth

Size of a Citizens’ Dividend from Carbon Fees, Implications for Growth

An emerging proposal for a carbon fee and dividend would yield a substantial dividend payment, eventually exceeding the amount of Alaska’s Permanent Fund Dividend, to American households. Citizens’ Climate Lobby (CCL) is proposing a revenue-neutral carbon fee. This would be collected from the companies operating hydrocarbon mines and wellheads, wherever carbon is first introduced into the economy, from which 100% of the revenue would be returned to the citizens as dividends. CCL’s proposal starts with a fee of $15 per metric ton of carbon, then would raise the fee by at least $10 per year (higher if faster carbon reduction is warranted) until environmental target reductions are met.

Using a carbon tax and dividend calculator at the Carbon Tax Center, I calculated what the individual and household annual dividends would be for selected years from 2016 (the hypothetical initial year) to 2039 (the last year available in the calculator). Households are assumed to contain an average of 2.6 people.

Individual Household Carbon Emissions, % below 2005 Levels
2016 $264 $686 13
2017 433 1185 15.2
2025 1,613 4,194 30.7
2030 2,247 5,843 38
2039 $3,325 $8,646 48

Although not a full basic income by any means, a carbon dividend promises to be a significant addition to individual and household incomes, surpassing the average amount of the Permanent Fund Dividend in less than a decade. By 2039, it is estimated the proposed carbon fee would reduce CO2 emissions 48% from 2005 levels, substantially more than the reductions projected for the EPA’s Clean Power Plan.

That sounds impressive, but is it enough? Citing experts at the Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research in her compelling vision for remaking the economy to combat global warming, This Changes Everything, Naomi Klein claims that “our only hope” of keeping global warming below 2°C, “is for wealthy countries to cut their emissions by somewhere between 8-10 percent a year….This level of emissions reduction has happened only in the context of economic collapse or deep depressions” (21).

Kevin Anderson of the Tyndall Center maintains that there needs to be an 80% cut in emissions in the Annex 1 (wealthier) countries by 2030, if we are to meet the 2°C target, and also allow developing countries’ emissions to peak somewhat later. This, he argues further, requires a “de-growth strategy,” a planned period of reduced economic activity. He does not think that carbon pricing will suffice to reduce carbon emissions at the rate required, for the following reasons:

To summarise, if: 

  1.  reductions in emissions greater than 3-4% p.a. [per annum] are incompatible with a growing economy,
  2.  the 2°C obligation relates to a twenty-first century carbon budget,
  3.  a 50% chance of exceeding 2°C is adjudged an acceptable risk of failure,
  4.  and Non-Annex 1 nations peak emissions by 2025 & subsequently reduce at ~7% p.a.,
  5.  then the wealthier nations’ carbon budget is the global 2°C budget minus the poorer nations’ budget,
  6.  and consequently wealthier nations must reduce emissions at 8 to 10% p.a.,
  7. Q.E.D. Annex 1 mitigation rates for 2°C are incompatible with economic growth

 

James Hansen et al., making somewhat different assumptions, also call for steep carbon emission reductions of around 6% per year.

More ambitious projections

Suppose that we need to reduce our emissions 80% by 2039. How much of a carbon fee would be needed, and how much would it yield in dividends? Starting at $20/ton, and beginning in 2016, with increments of $40/ton/year, these are the results from the Carbon Tax calculator:

 

Tax/ton Revenue, $ billions Carbon Emissions, % below 2005 Levels Individual Dividend (100% return) Household Dividend (average of 2.6 people)
2016 $20 $110 14.7 $345 $896
2018 100 451 32.4 1,394 3,624
2020 180 708 43.2 2,153 5,599
2025 380 1,130 60.7 3,309 8,603
2030 580 1,419 70.4 4,010 10,427
2035 780 1,635 76.8 4,476 11,637
2039 $940 $1,785 80.4 $4,802 $12,485

Note that emissions in the US rose around 17% from 1990 to 2005, so to get emissions down to 80% below 1990 levels, the annual increase would need to be at least $45. This would, by 2039, produce emissions 82.7% below 2005 levels, with a fee of $1,055 per ton, yielding revenue of $1,770 billion and an individual dividend of $4,761 ($12,380 for a household). Presumably the lower revenue and dividends compared to the scenario with a $40 increment is the consequence of declining fossil fuel use and a lower tax base. (To reach 82.4% reductions from 2005 by 2030, Anderson’s target date, the fee increment would need to be $70/year. The maximum individual dividend in 2039 would be $4,268).

The carbon fee would constitute a steadily rising percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) in terms of revenue. If GDP were held constant at $19 trillion, the fee would rise from 0.5% of GDP in 2016 to over 9% in 2039. Even if, as is more likely, GDP rises, the fee will still rise at a faster rate than GDP. Estimates for the 2030 US GDP range from $25.5 to $38.2 trillion. The percent of GDP of the carbon fee in 2030 would thus fall between 5.6 and 1.4, respectively.

At first glance, this suggests that the carbon fee would bring a halt to growth, as it would equal or exceed the normal growth rate of the economy (around 2%). However, accounting for the fact that the revenue is being returned as dividends, the effect may be to steer growth in another direction, away from carbon energy, which will quickly become unaffordable.

Of course, all this depends on the soundness of the projections for emissions reductions at various levels of carbon fee. We have no experience with carbon fees accelerating so rapidly. One case study suggests that carbon taxes may not be as effective as one would hope: the Norwegian carbon tax, one of the highest in Europe, resulted in relatively modest reductions of carbon emissions compared to business as usual, and over the 1990s, carbon emissions rose 15%. One problem was exempting industries on account of competitiveness, and another more telling issue was the inelasticity of demand for some forms of carbon use, such as transportation. The record of British Columbia’s revenue-neutral carbon tax is more encouraging, but since it topped out at $30 per ton in 2012, it is hard to extrapolate from that case to the more ambitious targets discussed here.

In the model discussed above, there are no exemptions. But with the more ambitious fee, it may not be possible for demand to shift rapidly enough from carbon fuel to renewables, and the effect of the fee could be mainly to depress demand, and with it economic activity, as has happened in the past when energy prices rise. Then it would appear that rapid carbon emissions reductions would not be compatible with economic growth.

For basic income researchers, I will conclude by noting the tension between analyses such as this, which envision basic income as part of equitable environmental policy and at least a transition period of de-growth, and those analyses that see basic income as an economic stimulus for growth.