Canada: Basic income would cost $76B per year

Canada: Basic income would cost $76B per year

76 billion dollars. That’s what it would cost to implement basic income in Canada according to a new report released by the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO).

The report comes just days after Ontario began testing its own basic income pilot study in Hamilton, Brantford, Brant County, Lindsay and Thunder Bay. As part of the study, 4000 Ontarians will receive unconditional cash transfers of up to $2500 per month for the next three years. The new report estimates how much it would cost to roll out the program nationwide.

Importantly, the policy under consideration would not be an universal basic income, and would only be available to low-income individuals between the ages of 18 and 64. Roughly 1 in 5 Canadians (7.5 million people) would qualify for benefits. The plan would guarantee a minimum annual income of $16,989 for singles, and $24,027 for couples (those with a disability could receive an additional $500 per month).

The report also assumes that the guaranteed basic income (GBI) would replace $33 billion in federal spending already in place to help low-income people, thus bringing the net cost of implementing the program down significantly to $43 billion.

The report has drawn both praise and criticism from both sides of the debate. Opponents of the idea (including Conservative MP Pierre Poilievre, who requested the PBO study) cite the high cost of the program, arguing that the plan would add an additional 13 percent to the current federal budget.

Supporters argue that the report actually underestimates the value of a minimum income by not taking into account potential savings in other areas of the economy. Elaine Power, a professor in public health at Queen’s University, notes that a basic income could save the government up to $28 billion in healthcare costs directly attributable to poverty. Andrew Coyne, a columnist at the National Post, also suggests that local governments would likely share the cost burden, which could knock an additional $20 billion off the federal price tag.

Currently, there are no plans to implement a nationwide guaranteed basic income in Canada. However, the report marks the first attempt by the federal government to estimate what such a program might cost. In order to further assess the viability of basic income in Canada, all eyes will surely be on the Ontario pilot study in the years to come.

 

More information at:

André Coelho, “ONTARIO, CANADA: Applications for basic income pilot project reach residents at Thunder Bay and Hamilton“, Basic Income News, 29th June 2017

André Coelho, “CANADA: Quebec is implementing a means-tested benefit, not a basic income”, Basic Income News, 24th January 2018

Rob Rainer, “A basic income for working-age adults is within fiscal reach“, 19th April 2018

ONTARIO, CANADA: Campaign Research opinion survey on pilot project

ONTARIO, CANADA: Campaign Research opinion survey on pilot project

Hamilton, Canada. Credit to: CBC.

As reported before, the majority of the Ontario’s citizens support a basic income, but they want a pilot project. However, most think $17,000 (CAD) is insufficient to meet the basic needs of most citizens.

There was a poll by Campaign Research done on 1,969 people with 53% of people supporting the plan for a basic income. Young people, aged 18 to 24, were the most supportive age group at 59%.

Lars Osberg, professor of economics at Dalhousie University, said the poll was possibly inaccurate with, for example, the Atlantic Canada (63% support for the plan) sample at only 198 people. Liberals (62%) and NDP (63%) were the most supportive.

The pilot project has 4,000 people from three areas: Hamilton, Lindsay, and Thunder Bay. It emphasizes citizens with low incomes. Couples will get $24,027; singles will receive $16,989.

The first experiment will run one year without conditions. The reason for the experiment is to see if the basic income provisions will improve life quality and job prospects.

Osberg noted that the youth are the unemployed or the underemployed, generally, and that the basic income does not disincentivize work. Osberg thinks the basic income would not disincentive work, as some fear.

More information at:

Jack Hauen, “Majority support Ontario’s basic income plan, but many find $17,000 not enough: poll”, Financial Times, May 17th 2017

Eli Yufest, “Majority approves of Ontario’s basic income plan, many find $17,000 per year too little an amount“, Campaign Research, May 16th 2017

ONTARIO, CANADA: Applications for basic income pilot project reach residents at Thunder Bay and Hamilton

ONTARIO, CANADA: Applications for basic income pilot project reach residents at Thunder Bay and Hamilton

Picture credit to: CBC Halmilton.

 

The basic income pilot project is being rolled out in Ontario, Canada. The localities selected for this trial are Thunder Bay and Hamilton, at present, with Lindsay getting started later this fall. Randomly selected individuals, with ages between 18 and 64 years old, are receiving information packages about the basic income project, so they can choose to participate or not.

 

A basic income trial has been on the forge for some time in Ontario, having been reported in several occasions and with the support of the Thunder Bay, Hamilton and Lindsay mayors. With an overall cost of CAN$ 50 million per year and a running period of three years, the test program is designed to cover 4000 households. The trial’s random selection of participants is not limited to the urban parts of these localities, but also some of their rural territory.

 

The program is specifically aimed at people with low incomes and has a few conditions for eligibility (Thunder Bay case), such as having lived in the region for more than 12 months and some income-related thresholds, as shown in the following table:

 

Individual status Earning less than, CAN $
Single 33978
Couple 48054
Single, with disability 45978
Couple, one with disability 60054
Couple, both with disability 72054

 

Being a voluntary-based basic income program trial (unlike the Finish one), people receiving the enrollment packages get up to a month to decide whether they wish to participate or not. However, participation will entail further involvement in research and survey, as part of the trial.

 

There has already been an information roundtable about the basic income pilot project in Hamilton, on the 2nd of June. The pilot project has randomly assigned 1000 selections in Hamilton, which amounts for around 2% of all people in that locality who rely on provincial social assistance programs. Tom Cooper, that information session executive director, has stated that he is “pretty confident that the results will show that people are significantly better off as a result of getting a little better income and having income redistributed.”

 

More information at:

Benjamin Lascia, “ONTARIO, CANADA: Mayors react to guaranteed minimum income pilot announcement”, Basic Income News, May 25th 2017

Kate McFarland, “ONTARIO, CANADA: Government Announces Details of Minimum Income Pilot”, Basic Income News, April 25th 2017

Kate McFarland, “ONTARIO, CANADA: Government releases summary of consultations on minimum income pilot”, Basic Income News, March 22nd 2017

CBC News, “Basic income project applications being mailed out in Ontario”, CBC News, 20th June 2017

CBC News, “Got questions about the basic income pilot project? Come to the library on Monday”, CBC News, 28th May 2017